Friday, February 21, 2014

More time for Madoff victims to seek recovery

NEW YORK – Investors victimized by Bernard Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme will get an extra two months to file claims for a share of a $4 billion federal recovery fund, Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said Friday.

The application deadline, initially set for Feb. 28, has been extended to April 30 to accommodate claimants who need more time to document and file their claims.

The Madoff Victim Fund, administered by special master Richard Breeden for the Department of Justice, has received approximately 9,000 claims to date, said Bharara. The fund is open to burned customers who invested with Madoff indirectly through financial feeder funds, investment groups and other pooled investment vehicles.

That guideline differentiates the fund from the separate victim-restitution effort headed by Irving Picard, a court-appointed trustee. Several courts have ruled that indirect Madoff investors don't qualify for the trustee-managed fund, which has so far recovered $9.79 billion of the estimated $20 billion lost in the fraud.

Breeden said many potentially eligible victims have reported they only recently learned of the federally controlled recovery fund and need time to prepare financial records that date back years or decades.

Top 5 Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now

"As much as possible we want to make sure that every real victim has a chance to learn of, and participate in, the claims process," said Breeden.

Approximately 94% of the claims received so far have come from individuals who either did not file a claim with the trustee-administered fund or whose claim there was disallowed because they were not direct investors with Madoff.

An estimated 75% of the claimants have recovered nothing, or less then 10% of their losses, since Madoff's investment advisory firm collapsed with his arrest in Dec. 2008. He pleaded guilty without standing trial and is now serving a ! 150-year prison term.

Five former Madoff employees are currently standing trial in Manhattan federal court on charges they knowingly participated in and profited from the fraud. They have pleaded not guilty.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Producer Prices Tick Up in January

Producer PricesMatt Rourke/AP WASHINGTON -- The cost of producing goods and services in the United States rose slightly in January, with higher food prices partly offset by cheaper gas. Overall, inflation remains mild. The Labor Department said Wednesday that the producer price index, which tracks prices before they reach consumers, rose 0.2 percent in January. That followed a 0.1 percent increase in December and a flat reading in November. In the past year, producer prices have risen just 1.2 percent, below the Federal Reserve's preferred target rate. Excluding the cost of food, energy and markups by wholesalers and retailers, so-called core prices ticked up just 0.1 percent. Producer prices remain "rather modest, a sign that underlying inflationary pressures are very modest," Annalisa Piazza, an analyst at Newedge Strategy, said in a note to clients. January's producer prices are the first to be compiled since the government revamped its index to make it more comprehensive. Producer prices now include services and construction. Before last month, the index tracked only goods. That change has doubled the producer price index's coverage to include 75 percent of the economy. It is the government's first revamp of the index in 35 years. Inflation has declined in the past two years, posing a challenge for Fed policymakers. During 2013, the producer price index rose just 1.1 percent after rising 1.4 percent in 2012. Both figures are far below the Fed's 2 percent target. Businesses have struggled to raise prices because of a tight job market and meager wage growth. Consumers have found it hard to pay more or demand higher wages. Low inflation has enabled the Fed to pursue extraordinary stimulus programs to try to boost economic growth. The Fed is now trying to unwind some of that stimulus. It cut its monthly bond purchases to $65 billion this month, from $75 billion in January and $85 billion last year. The bond purchases are intended to keep long-term interest rates low to encourage borrowing and spending. But Fed policymakers have expressed concern about the persistence of low inflation. If inflation remains below its target, the Fed could extend its stimulus efforts.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015

In 1998, Warren Buffett (BRK.B) spoke to a group of students at the University of Florida as part of the Graham-Buffett Teaching Endowment, which was set up by renowned investor (and UF graduate) Mason Hawkins. During that speech, Warren was asked a question about where the market was headed and responded with the following (bold added for emphasis; sorry for the length, but it�� needed to get the point across):

�� have no idea where the market is going to go. I prefer it going down. But my preferences have nothing to do with it. The market knows nothing about my feelings. That is one of the first things you have to learn about a stock. You buy 100 shares of General Motors (GM). Now all of a sudden you have this feeling about GM. It goes down, you may be mad at it. You may say, "Well, if it just goes up for what I paid for it, my life will be wonderful again." Or if it goes up, you may say how smart you were and how you and GM have this love affair. You have got all these feelings. The stock doesn't know you own it. The stock just sits there; it doesn't care what you paid or the fact that you own it.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Regal Entertainment Group(RGC)

Regal Entertainment Group, through its subsidiaries, operates a theatre circuit in the United States. The company develops, acquires, and operates multi-screen theatres primarily in mid-sized metropolitan markets and suburban growth areas of larger metropolitan markets under the Regal Cinemas, United Artists, and Edwards brand names. As of February 13, 2012, it operated 6,614 screens in 527 theatres in 37 states and the District of Columbia. Regal Entertainment Group was founded in 2002 and is based in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Maxfield]

    Sean Williams provided a more nuanced take on this issue in "Will Obamacare Turn America into a Nation of Part-Time Workers?" After citing Regal Entertainment's (NYSE: RGC  ) move to reduce hours for thousands of its non-salaried employees, Sean concluded: "While I don't think we'll see a dramatic shift to part-time employment, I also wouldn't be shocked to see certain business sectors pull what Regal Entertainment did to its employees, either."

  • [By Sean Williams]

    The impending implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is also having a decipherable impact on U-6, even if a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis demonstrates that few employers are changing their hiring habits. Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC  ) , the nation's largest operator of movie theaters, slashed thousands of its workers' hours to get under the 30-hour weekly average in order to avoid being penalized for not providing health care insurance options to its employees. That point is somewhat moot now with the PPACA employer mandate being pushed back another year, but it's nonetheless a reason why full-time work is becoming difficult to come by in certain sectors.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: PHOENIX IT GROUP ORD GBP0.01(PNX.L)

Phoenix IT Group plc provides managed information technology infrastructure support services in the United Kingdom. It offers systems management, communications, remote telephone support, high-touch field, project and consultancy, business continuity, and disaster recovery services. The company also provides infrastructure management, professional, networking support, software development, and support services. It offers its services through a network of partners. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Northampton, the United Kingdom.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Own For 2014: ABBOTT LABORATORIES COM STK NPV (ABT.L)

Abbott Laboratories engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of health care products worldwide. Its Established Pharmaceutical Products segment offers branded generic pharmaceuticals for the treatment of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency, irritable bowel syndrome or biliary spasm, pain, fever, inflammation, hypothyroidism, gynecological disorders, intrahepatic cholestasis or depressive symptoms, physiological rhythm of the colon, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, as well as provides anti-infective and influenza vaccines. The company�s Diagnostic Products segment provides diagnostic systems and tests, such as immunoassay and clinical chemistry systems; assays for screening and diagnosis for drugs of abuse, cancer, therapeutic drug monitoring, fertility, and physiological and infectious diseases; genomic-based tests; hematology systems and reagents; and diagnostic systems and tests for blood analysis, as well as instruments that automate the extraction, pu rification, and preparation of DNA and RNA from patient samples, and detects and measures infectious agents. Its Nutritional Products segment offers pediatric and adult nutritional products comprising various forms of prepared infant and follow-on formula. The company�s Vascular Products segment provides coronary, endovascular, vessel closure, and structural heart devices for the treatment of vascular disease. Abbott Laboratories also offers blood glucose monitoring meters, test strips, and data management software and accessories for people with diabetes; and medical devices for the eye, including cataract surgery, LASIK surgery, contact lens care products, and dry eye products. The company primarily serves retailers, wholesalers, hospitals, health care facilities, laboratories, physicians� offices, and government agencies. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Abbott Park, Illinois.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Micron Technology Inc.(MU)

Micron Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and marketing of semiconductor devices worldwide. Its products include dynamic random access memory (DRAM) products that provide data storage and retrieval, which include DDR2 and DDR3; and other specialty DRAM memory products, including DDR, SDRAM, DDR and DDR2 mobile low power DRAM, pseudo-static RAM, and reduced latency DRAM. The company also offers NAND flash memory products, which are electrically re-writeable and non-volatile semiconductor devices that retain content when power is turned off. In addition, it provides NOR flash memory products that are electrically re-writeable and non-volatile semiconductor memory devices; phase change memory products; and image sensor products. Micron Technology?s products are used in a range of electronic applications, including personal computers, workstations, network servers, mobile phones, flash memory cards, USB storage devices, digital still c ameras, MP3/4 players, and in automotive applications. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and retailers through internal sales force, independent sales representatives, and distributors, as well as through a Web-based customer direct sales channel. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Axler]

    An old spin-out of Eaton Corp. (ETN), Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip and other processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. The semiconductor capital equipment industry is very cyclical, and as a smaller player in the industry, ACLS has not been immune, and gone through protracted periods of losses. In the past few years, the company has taken numerous steps to reposition itself for the next cyclical upswing by listening to its customers and investing heavily in R&D to revamp its product line to expand its addressable market opportunity, right-sizing its cost structure to substantially lower its breakeven level, establishing new collaborative partnerships, and optimizing its balance sheet to unlock value. Now with signs of a cyclical upswing occurring, and being led by memory - Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK), ACLS is poised for accelerating earnings potential beginning in Q4'2013 that could drive its stock price substantially higher. However, with a few nearer-term catalysts on the horizon, investors may not want to wait too long before purchasing shares. As an early indicator, investors should consider that insiders recently purchased the stock in the open market in August at current levels. These stock purchases coincide with the one year anniversary of ACLS's new Purion M product line entering an evaluation period with a major customer. Sell-side analysts are starting to take notice and listening in to the company's recent conference call, which at least opens the door to new broker initiations in the future. The downside risk appears mitigated by ACLS's strengthened balance sheet, and dramatically improved operating financial model that has stemmed further cash burn. As the company hits an inflection point with new customer contracts and proves its earnings cycle is under way, we expect ACLS's valuation discount to peers to narrow and the stock to appreciate substantially

  • [By Selena Maranjian]

    More than a handful of technology-heavy companies had strong performances over the past year. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU  ) surged 118%, despite challenges from a struggling PC market. Bulls are hopeful that growth in tablets and smartphones will�boost demand�for memory chips. Micron's purchase�of Japanese manufacturer Elpida has some investors quite optimistic, as it boosts Micron's capacity and its relationship with�Apple. Some worry about competition, the commoditization of memory, and Micron's debt levels. The company beat expectations for both revenue and earnings in its last quarter.

  • [By Wallace Witkowski]

    Micron (MU) �shares jumped 5.9% to $23.03 on heavy volume after reporting adjusted fiscal first-quarter earnings of 77 cents a share on revenue of $4.04 billion. A consensus of analysts polled by FactSet expected 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.72 billion.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Aviva Corporation Ltd(AVA.AX)

Aviva Corporation Limited, a resource development company, develops a pipeline of energy and metal projects in Africa and Australia. The company, through a joint venture with AfriOre International (Barbados) Limited, holds a 51% interest in the West Kenya gold and base metals project that covers an area of approximately 2,788 square kilometers in the prospective Ndori Greenstone belt in Kenya. It also holds interests in two coal-based energy assets, including the Mmamantswe coal project located to the north of Gaborone, Botswana; and the Coolimba power and coal project in the Mid-West region of Western Australia. The company is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: SurModics Inc.(SRDX)

SurModics, Inc. provides drug delivery and surface modification technologies to the healthcare industry. The company offers surface modification coating technologies to enhance access, deliverability, and predictable deployment of medical devices, as well as drug delivery coating technologies to provide site-specific drug delivery from the surface of a medical device for the coronary, peripheral, neuro-vascular, and urology markets. It also provides a range of drug delivery technologies for injectable therapeutics, including microparticles, nanoparticles, and implants addressing a range of clinical applications, such as ophthalmology, oncology, dermatology, and neurology. In addition, the company provides in vitro diagnostic component products and technologies comprising microarray slide technologies, protein stabilization reagents, substrates, polymers and reagent chemicals, and antigens for diagnostic test kits and biomedical research applications. SurModics, Inc. market s its technologies and products worldwide through direct sales force consisting of sales professionals. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on SurModics (Nasdaq: SRDX  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Savaria Corp Com Npv (SIS.TO)

Savaria Corporation designs, manufactures, and distributes accessibility equipment for people with mobility challenges; and elevators for commercial and residential applications. It offers home elevators, including infinity, eclipse, and telecab home elevators; commercial elevators, such as the Orion elevators; B.07 and SL-1000 stair lifts; wheelchair conversions for rear, side, and dual entry systems for personal and commercial needs; Roby mobile tracked systems and automatic sliding doors; and door and gate openers, swing doors, and powered scooters. The company also provides wheelchair lifts, such as multi lift, V-1504, and pro lift vertical platform lifts; and ES-125, delta, omega, S64, and C65 inclined platform lifts. In addition, it offers resources for assisting architects in home and commercial projects; lowered-floor minivans and other vehicles to accommodate wheelchairs; and converts automotive vehicles. The company sells its products through a network of retaile rs. Savaria Corporation was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: CDI Corporation(CDI)

CDI Corp. provides engineering and information technology project outsourcing solutions and professional staffing services primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. It operates in four segments: ES, MRI, Anders, and ITS. The ES segment provides engineering, design, project management, staffing, and outsourcing solutions to oil, gas, refining, alternative energy, power generation and energy transmission, chemicals, and heavy manufacturing industries; engineering, design, logistics, and staffing services to the defense industry, primarily in marine design, systems development, and military aviation support; engineering, design, project management, staffing, and facility start-up services to pharmaceutical, bio-pharmaceutical, and regulated medical services industries; and architecture, civil and environmental engineering, communication technology, and consulting services to governmental, educational, and private industry customers. The MRI segment opera tes as a global franchisor that does business as MRINetwork and provides the use of its trademarks, business systems, and training and support services to its franchisees who engage in the search and recruitment of executive, technical, professional, and managerial personnel for employment by their customers. It also provides training, implementation services, and back-office services to enable franchisees to pursue staffing opportunities. The Anders segment provides contract and permanent placement candidates to customers in the areas of architecture, building services, rail, commercial and industrial construction, consulting engineering, facilities management, interior design, surveying, and town planning. The ITS segment offers various information technology related services, which include staffing augmentation, permanent placement, outsourcing, and consulting. The company was founded in 1950 and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on CDI (NYSE: CDI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

  • [By Rich Smith]

    Philadelphia-based CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI  ) has won a $36 million contract to provide watercraft engineering and marine services to the U.S. Navy.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Bodaclick SA (BDK)

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Owens & Minor Inc.(OMI)

Owens & Minor, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides distribution, third-party logistics, and other supply-chain management services to healthcare providers and suppliers of medical and surgical products. Its services include logistics, supplier management, analytics inventory management, outsourced resource management, clinical supply management, and business process consulting. The company also offers various services comprising PANDAC, an operating room-focused inventory management program that helps healthcare providers to control suture and endo-mechanical inventory; SurgiTrack, a customizable surgical supply service that includes the assembly and delivery of surgical supplies in procedure-based totes; OMSolutions, a supply-chain consulting, customer technology, and resource management service; and WISDOM Gold, an Internet-based supply spend management, data normalization, and contract management solution. In addition, it provides Clinical Supply Solutions, a n inventory and contract management service; and Implant Purchase Manager, a technology-based service, as well as owns OM HealthCare Logistics, a customized third-party logistics and business process outsourcing service. Further, the company distributes medical and surgical supplies to the acute-care market. It serves federal government, including the U.S. department of defense; and alternate-site providers, such as ambulatory surgery centers, physicians? practices, clinics, home healthcare organizations, nursing homes, and rehabilitation facilities, as well as provides distribution and supply-chain management services that include third-party logistics and business process outsourcing services to manufacturers of medical and surgical products. Owens & Minor, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Mechanicsville, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Marc Bastow]

    Third-party logistics services provider Owens & Minor (OMI) raised its quarterly dividend 4.2% to 25 cents per share, payable March 31 to shareholders of record as of March 17.
    OMI Dividend Yield: 2.82%

  • [By Dividends4Life]

    Memberships and Peers: CAH is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers��Index. The company's peer group includes: AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC) with a 1.3% yield, McKesson Corporation (MCK) with a 0.6% yield and Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI) with a 2.5% yield.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Owens & Minor (NYSE: OMI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Top 5 Warren Buffett Stocks To Invest In 2015: Red Hat Inc.(RHT)

Red Hat, Inc. provides open source software solutions to enterprises worldwide. It also offers enterprise-ready open source operating system platforms. The company provides Red Hat Enterprise Linux, an operating system designed for enterprise computing; JBoss Enterprise Middleware that offers a suite of products for developing, deploying, integrating, and managing distributed, composite, and Web-based applications and services; and Red Hat Enterprise Virtualization for Servers, including Red Hat Enterprise Virtualization Hypervisor, a hypervisor based on KVM technology that converts the Red Hat Enterprise Linux kernel into a virtualization platform; and Red Hat Enterprise Virtualization Manager, a server virtualization management system, which provide capabilities for host and guest operating systems, such as availability, live migration, power manager, storage manager, and system scheduler. It also offers other Red Hat enterprise technologies, which comprise Red Hat MRG t hat integrates open and scalable messaging; Red Hat Developer, which provides integrated development environments and support for application developers; and Red Hat Directory Server that centralizes application settings, user profiles, group data, policies, and access control information into a network-based registry. In addition, the company offers Red Hat systems management solutions, such as RHN, RHN Satellite, Red Hat Customer Portal, and JBoss ON; and infrastructure enterprise technologies, including software development tools, clustering of systems and services, and directory services. Further, it provides consulting, training, and support services. The company sells its enterprise technologies through subscriptions. It has strategic alliances with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.; and Intel Corporation. The company was formerly known as Red Hat Software, Inc. and changed its name to Red Hat, Inc. in June 1999. Red Hat, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Ral eigh, North Carolina.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Wall Street expects Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) to post its Q2 earnings at $0.33 per share on revenue of $372.07 million. Red Hat shares fell 0.69% to close at $53.22 on Friday.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) shares touched a new 52-week high of $59.28 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equal-weight to Overweight.

    Juniper Networks (NYSE: JNPR) shares jumped 7.98% to reach a new 52-week high of $25.41 following Elliott headlines.

Monday, February 17, 2014

4 Steps to Avoid Tax ID Fraud This Year

Best Penny Stocks To Invest In 2015

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Tax identity fraud figures seem to grow worse for taxpayers every year.

According to AllClearID.com, 1.2 million U.S. taxpayers reported tax-based identity theft cases to law enforcement authorities in 2012, and that rose to 1.6 million for just the first half of 2013.

According to a November report by the Treasury inspector general for tax administration, the IRS paid as much as $3.6 billion in fraudulent refunds to identity thieves in 2012, with more than 1.6 million taxpayers becoming victims of fraud in some form or another.

Whether they file their own returns or work with a tax professional, people need to be aware of potential tax scams and identity theft, says Rip Mason, chief executive at LegalShield, a legal services and ID theft protection firm.
Also see: 10 Money-Saving Tax Tips to Tackle Right Now>> "Tax scams are as old as taxes themselves," Mason says. "With the advent of so many new tax laws the last few years, including those included in the Affordable Care Act, scammers have been particularly active. Scammers prey on the uninformed and exploit people's natural fears of the IRS and our complex tax laws. Education is the only defense to stop scammers." Tax ID fraud is particularly common as tax season rolls into its busy season. People are so busy gathering documents and collecting data that theyre not as careful as they normally would be with sensitive data such as Social Security, bank account or credit card numbers. Mason and Legal Shield offer these tips to avoid being a victim this year: Be careful with technology. While technology has made correspondence and interaction easier than ever, know that the IRS will never initiate contact by email or social media. Also note that phone scams increase during tax season. Identity thieves will call taxpayers impersonating IRS agents and ask for bank transfers or important credit information. Hang up.
Also see: These Are the Worst Passwords on the Internet>> 
Use a legitimate tax professional. Hiring a professional to help file your taxes is a great idea -- if, that is, that tax professional is legitimate. Be wary of anyone claiming to be legit but refusing to sign a return or include their ID number in filings or promising a huge return in exchange for a percentage. Dont fall for any pitchmans hype. Despite what you might hear from late-night television commercials and shady advertisements, there is no free money to be had from the IRS. Lastly, and most importantly? Take special care of your financial data. Always stash your tax documents in a safe place and, if you store that data online, make sure it is password encrypted and fully secure.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

3 Predictions for the New Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

I predicted that Model N (NYSE: MODN  ) would post a smaller loss than analysts were expecting. The provider of revenue management solutions has been a dud since going public nearly a year ago, but one thing it has consistently done is post a smaller deficit than what the pros are forecasting. Wall Street was settling for a loss of $0.12 a share, and Model N sported only $0.03 a share in red ink. The stock soared 19% on Tuesday after the better-than-expected report. I was right. After more than a year of predicting that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average   (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) , I mixed things up two weeks ago. I simply predicted that the Dow would bounce back after plunging 3.5% and 1.1% over the prior two weeks. I repeated the call this time around, and the Dow responded with a hearty 2.3% gain. I was right.  My final call was for LeapFrog (NYSE: LF  ) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The maker of electronic learning toys has been routinely beating Wall Street projections over the past year. I was banking on a repeat performance, but it wasn't to be. LeapFrog merely broke even on a sharper drop in revenue than expected. Analysts had been braced for a profit of $0.14 a share. I was wrong.

Best US Companies For 2015

Two out of three? I can do better than that. Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. Veeco Industries will post a larger loss than analysts are expecting
Veeco Industries (NASDAQ: VECO  ) is a provider of process equipment solutions that assist the making of LEDs, flexible OLEDs, power electronics, hard drives, MEMS, and wireless chips. Unfortunately for investors it also has been posting a lot of red ink lately.

The one constant over the past year is that Veeco has posted a larger deficit than analysts were forecasting, and that goes for the two periods over the past when the pros were holding out for a profit.

Analysts see Veeco posting a loss of $0.33 a share on Wednesday. That's a lot, but my first call remains that it will wind up with a larger deficit than that.

2.The Dow will close lower this week
The market in general has given us two healthy weeks of gains, so I'm going to switch gears on my call that the Dow Jones Industrial Average inches higher again. It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, given that the exchanges will be closed on Monday, and I can see the blue chips taking a breather after two strong weeks.

My second call is for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close lower on the week.

3. LifeLock will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

LifeLock (NYSE: LOCK  ) is the leading provider of identity theft monitoring for consumers. This may seem like a finicky model for a subscription service, but LifeLock has come through with 34 consecutive quarters of sequential growth in revenue and members.

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $0.21 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q4 2012

$0.07

$0.10

43%

Q1 2013

($0.01)

$0.01

200%

Q2 2013

$0.01

$0.03

200%

Q3 2013

$0.10

$0.12

20%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. Despite all of the buzz being generated about identity protection breaches at a couple of major retailers this holiday shopping season, LifeLock is not a lock to stretch that streak to 35 quarters of sequential growth. Members can flock to cheaper offerings or leave entirely.

However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week as you check out some more stock picks.

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Friday, February 14, 2014

Seven different paths to take in retirement

When Carolee Duckworth, 67, of Sherrills Ford, N.C., retired as a Web design professor, she took a close look at her personality, passions and interests and decided to write non-fiction books, including travel books.

When Marie Langworthy, 65, of Columbia, Conn., retired as a school administrator, she also did a self-analysis and decided to supervise student teachers during the day, teach technology skills to adults at night and work as a writer on the side.

People who are retiring sometimes just think about getting another job doing the same thing they've done all their lives, Langworthy says. "But they really need to step back and go through a self-discovery and self-assessment process and ask: 'What do I really want to do? What do I enjoy doing? What am I good at?'"

Langworthy and Duckworth have written Shifting Gears to Your Life and Work After Retirement to help people take a look at themselves in a totally different way. "We want people to open themselves up to possibilities they never knew existed," Langworthy says.

Duckworth agrees. She worked for years as a career-change counselor helping displaced workers, homemakers and 55-plus career changers find new job opportunities. And she and Langworthy interviewed hundreds of retirees.

STORY: Living happily ever after in retirement

STORY: Preparing yourself for retirement

STORY: Retirement is a good time to pump up exercise

People need to put careful thought into what they're going to do in retirement, Duckworth says. They need to research it, read about it and determine exactly what they want to do.

The authors suggest asking yourself a series of questions: Do you have a creative side that has gone unfulfilled? An interest you have never been able to explore? Do you have an entrepreneurial urge? Humanitarian interests? An adventurous streak? Have you dreamed of a role as a teacher, guide or mentor that you'd like to fulfill?

"Our goal is to help you come up with a mission statement for the ! rest of your life," Duckworth says.

The authors have identified seven different paths that retirees might take. Most pursue a combination of several of these:

• Life of leisure. Many retirees cultivate at least a partial life of leisure, pursuing hobbies, sports, passions or interests, such as fishing, golfing, sailing, gardening and writing, Langworthy says.

This is one of the traditional views of retirement, and a lot of people stop there when they could combine this with other things, Duckworth says. For example, she says, "I met a man who retired as a corporate executive, and his dream was to move to the mountains and have time to read. That was as far as his dream went. Before the first year was out, he had read 232 books, and then he closed the last book and said, 'Now what?' He needed a longer dream, so he became a real estate agent."

• Life of the volunteer. Volunteerism can provide structure, meaning and purpose to retirees' lives, can offer opportunities to establish social contacts and can lead to fulfilling paid employment. "Volunteers often say it's more rewarding to give than receive," Langworthy says.

• Life of a traveler. Some people enter retirement with a bucket list of places they want to visit and experiences they want to have. Rather than just travel as a visitor to places, "I suggest staying in places for a week or more so you get to know the people, not just see the museums," Duckworth says.

• Life of engaging new work. This is work that's something completely different from what you did most of your lifetime. "I know a retired accountant who got a job doing landscaping at a golf course, and he loved it," Langworthy says.

• Life as an entrepreneur. Retirees are often primed and ready to create a business that may contribute to the health, happiness and well-being of others. This involves identifying a need that could be fulfilled and going after it. Give yourself permission to explore ideas, Duckworth says.

• Life as a c! reative. ! These are people who create art, music, new ideas, services and solutions to complex problems. They may be doing this to make a living or for pleasure or for both. "Coming back to your creative self is one of the glories of retirement," Duckworth adds.

• Life of a student. Some study for the pleasure of learning or to train in a new area of work or to become skilled or knowledgeable in an area of interest. "There is a thrill that comes with learning new things," she says.

If you don't like the first few paths you pursue, then try something else, Langworthy says.

She told her grandson the other day that what she really wanted to be was a film editor or cartographer, and he said, "Well, why don't you?"

Retirees "have so much to contribute," Duckworth says. "We've got tremendous experience. We need a social movement where every retiree is planning the next phase of their lives and making contributions until they're 80, or even 90 or 100."

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

A Festival Lets You Eat, Drink, Floss with Bacon

Bizarre BaconWayne Parry/APA BLT made with an entire pound of bacon on display at the Tropicana Casino and Resort in Atlantic City, N.J. ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. -- Get ready for bacon like you've never eaten, drunk or worn it before. Bacon milkshakes. Chocolate-covered bacon shaped like roses. Bacon-flavored toothpaste, dental floss and lip balm. Bacon bourbon, margaritas, beer and vodka. Bacon ice cream sundaes. A BLT sandwich with a full pound of bacon. They're all on the menu this week as one Atlantic City casino stretches the bounds of good taste and cardiovascular health with Bacon Week. The festival at the Tropicana Casino and Resort gives new meaning to the term "pigging out." The idea of a bacon festival is not as far-fetched as it might sound. Americans eat about 1.5 billion pounds of bacon a year, according to the National Pork Board. And the website bacontoday.com counted nearly 30 bacon festivals around the country from late April through December 2013, many of whose tickets sold out in minutes. "Bacon is like heaven," said Nadina Fornia, of Egg Harbor Township. "If you're going to die, die with bacon on your lips and a BLT in each hand." She was drawn to the casino Monday by the promise of bacon in far-out forms, including milkshakes and beer (not in the same glass, thankfully.) She also heard about the bacon-infused vodka. "That is my quest today," she said. Fornia tried a bacon bloody Mary mixed with a smoky bacon beer. Despite the overwhelming salty taste and the small strip of bacon floating in the glass, it tasted mostly like sharp tomato juice, she said. Nearby were chocolate covered pretzels with crumbled bacon bits; chocolate-drizzled potato chips with bacon, two kinds of pasta dishes with bacon, bacon cupcakes, and bacon wrapped around a fake green stem to form roses, which were then dipped in chocolate. "The first taste is chocolatey, then it's all bacon," said Melissa Ehrke, of Egg Harbor Township. "I was a little surprised I liked it, 'cause I was afraid to try it. It's that whole sweet and salty thing." While bacon-flavored grooming items are sold at festivals around the nation, they were encountering some skepticism at the Tropicana this week. "There are people that are just crazy for bacon," said Denise McGrath, of Neptune City. "But bacon toothpaste or floss? I'm not that crazy." James Sanders, of New York City, was in heaven trying as many free samples of bacon-flavored items as he could get his hands on. "I love me some bacon!" he exclaimed between bites of ... something. "I don't even know what this is, but it's got bacon in it. And it's good!" Sanders said eating bacon is a multilayered experience. "You keep chewing it and chewing it, and the flavor comes out the more you chew on it," he said. "And then you get to the fat and that floods into your mouth. I just love it." Carrie Jorgenson and her husband, Mike, were downing the bacon bloody Mary beer concoctions, while channeling celebrity chef Emeril Lagasse.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Stocks sluggish ahead of Yellen remarks

Stocks closed slightly higher Monday as investors look ahead to new Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen's appearance Tuesday before Congress.

The gains extended the stock rally started at the end of last week to a third day.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 8 points, or 0.05%, to 15,802. The Standard & Poor's 500 gained 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,800 and the Nasdaq composite rose 22 points, or 0.5%, to 4,148.

Investors are watching for Yellen's appearance before Congress for signs of whether the Fed might alter its plans to wind down its stimulus. The Fed has been buying $85 billion worth of bonds every month in an effort to stimulate the economy by pushing down commercial lending rates. The Fed said in December it will reduce that by $10 billion each month.

FEDERAL RESERVE: Yellen faces first grilling before Congress

Apple investors liked the news that Carl Icahn has dropped efforts to get the tech titan to buy back $50 billion shares, with company stock rising about 2% to around $530. In dropping his bid, Icahn cited Apple's recent buyback of $14 billion in shares last week.

McDonald's is off 1% to about $95 on word that U.S. sales fell 3.3% at established stores, despite a 1.2% boost in global sales.

In Asia, China's Shanghai composite index gained 2.03% to 2,086.07 and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was up 1.77% at 14,718.34.

Most European benchmarks gained, with Britain's FTSE 100 index up 0.3% to 6,591.55, its highest finish this month.Germany's DAX index fell 0.1% 9,289.86.

Benchmark U.S. oil for May delivery gained 6 cents to $99.93 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Jobs data out Friday showed the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, far below the 170,000 analysts had been expecting. But unemployment dipped to 6.6%, the lowest rate since the global financial crisis hit in late 2008.

FRIDAY: Stocks rally despite weak jobs report

Contributing: Associated Press

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Why Startups Seeking Funding Should Use Content To Build Their Credibility

Today, venture capital (VC) is more democratic than ever. Investors are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and geography is no longer a constricting factor.

Lower barriers, however, create stricter filters. With so many startups jockeying for funding, the Internet also enables investors to make snap judgments. Therefore, if you're looking for funding, you can be sure that your online presence will be the subject of intense scrutiny.

What do investors want to see? According to Edith Yeung, founding partner at RightVentures, there are two main criteria: the passion of the entrepreneur and the potential of the startup.

What better way to convey passion and potential than with well-crafted content? Yeung says that, with strong content, you can "take a stand publicly…addressing issues that [investors] care about in a timely manner."

shutterstock_97026314

 

Establishing yourself as an industry thought leader gives you a competitive advantage in the fight for funding. Here's how you can use content to gain visibility, attract investors, and secure capital.

Start with Strategy

When your media presence is strategy-driven, you can shape the way funders perceive you.

Before you begin publishing content, ask yourself some basic questions about your brand. What sets you apart? What are the potential funding concerns?

Strive to create content that is inherently useful for investors — meaning it answers their questions. If they don't find it valuable, they'll never read it.

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Fortify Your Presence with Credibility

"There is a common misconception between 'getting press' and being credible," says Rishi Roongta, a venture capitalist at Pritzker Group.

Ensure that every potential point of interaction with your brand showcases your dedication and credibility.

When investors Google you, they should find:

A solid, vibrant presence on all of your social media platforms. Whitepapers, case studies, and testimonials on your website. Articles you've published in a diverse set of publications.

Remember: Your email signature is a valuable tool to bring each of these together. Recently, I saw an email from Elite SEM, and their team uses each email to market its newsletter. I update my email signature to include my latest published article. This is valuable real estate. Don't waste it.

Deliver Content to Your Audience's Doorstep

Yes, getting published on Forbes and The Wall Street Journal does wonders for your overall credibility. But an article in a VC industry journal or publication establishes a direct line of communication between you and your ideal funder. Choosing the right publication can be as important as writing the right message.

Friday, February 7, 2014

5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.

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This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news.

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Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if The Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance.

If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend.

>>3 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

Bio-Reference Laboratories

My first earnings short-squeeze play is laboratory testing services player Bio-Reference Laboratories (BRLI), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Bio-Reference Laboratories to report revenue of $191.45 million on earnings of 43 cents per share.

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This company recently slashed its profit guidance for the quarter and the year, citing the government shutdown and the transitions under the Affordable Care Act disrupted business, as did changes in reimbursements from both public and private insurers.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float Bio-Reference Laboratories is extremely high at 36.3%. That means that out of the 24.44 million shares in the tradable float, 9.59 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a huge short interest on a stock with a very low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a monster short-squeeze for shares of BRLI post-earnings.

From a technical perspective, BRLI is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending badly over the last month, with shares moving lower from its high of $37.97 to its recent low of $26.12 a share. During that downtrend, shares of BRLI have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of BRLI into oversold territory, since its current relative strength index reading is 28.48.

If you're bullish on BRLI, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to take out its 200-day moving average of $28.72 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 311,738 shares. If we get that move, then BRLI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 50-day moving average at $31.91 a share. Any high-volume move above $31.91 will then give BRLI a chance to re-test its recent gap down day high of $35 a share.

I would simply avoid BRLI or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that move and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $26.12 to $25.38 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then BRLI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support level at its 52-week low of $23.36 a share. Any high-volume move below $23.36 will then give BRLI a chance to trend back below $20 a share.

AAR

Another potential earnings short-squeeze trade idea is aviation services and products player AAR (AIR), which is set to release its numbers on Thursday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect AAR to report revenue $536.14 million on earnings of 48 cents per share.

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The current short interest as a percentage of the float for AAR is notable at 6.5%. That means that out of the 36.40 million shares in the tradable float, 2.42 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 31.3%, or by about 576,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a strong quarter, then shares of AIR could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their short positions.

From a technical perspective, AIR is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $20.76 to its recent high of $31.55 a share. During that uptrend, shares of AIR have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of AIR within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're in the bull camp on AIR, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $31 to its 52-week high at $31.55 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 295,734 shares. If that breakout hits, then AIR will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $40 to $45 a share.

I would simply avoid AIR or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day moving average of $29.43 a share to more near-term support at $29.02 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then AIR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $27 to $26 a share. Any high-volume move below those levels will then set up AIR to re-test or possibly take out its 200-day moving average of $23.83 a share.

Darden Restaurants

One potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is full service restaurant player Darden Restaurants (DRI) which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Darden Restaurants to report revenue of $2.07 billion on earnings of 21 cents per share.

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Just today, Activist hedge fund Barington Capital Group issued a report arguing that Darden Restaurants could be worth $71 to $80 a share if the company enacts a series of strategic changes. Those changes would be Darden splitting into two companies – one for Olive Garden and Red Lobster, and the other for its higher-growth brands, including LongHorn Steakhouse, Capital Grille, Yard House and Bahama Breeze. The firm also recommends Darden explore creating a publicly traded real estate investment trust.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Darden Restaurants stands at 6%. That means that out of the 129.46 million shares in the tradable float, 8.3 million shares are sold short by the bears. If this company can deliver the earnings news the bulls are looking for, then shares of DRI could easily explode sharply higher post-earnings as the bears jump to cover some of their short bets.

From a technical perspective, DRI is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last two months, with shares moving between $50.69 on the downside and $54.08 on the upside. Shares of DRI have now started to bounce higher off its 50-day moving average of $52 and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent range.

If you're bullish on DRI, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $54.08 to its 52-week high at $55.25 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.90 million shares. If that breakout hits, then DRI will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $60 to $65 a share.

I would avoid DRI or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $50.69 to its 200-day moving average of $49.69 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then DRI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels $46 to $44 a share.

Rite Aid

Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is retail drugstore chain player Rite Aid (RAD), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Rite Aid to report revenue of $6.32 billion on earnings of 4 cents per share.

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Just recently, JPMorgan analyst Lisa Gill said the near-term could be somewhat more bumpy for Rite Aid than in recent quarters, citing the economy, reimbursement pressure and ongoing work in executing its turnaround plan.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Rite Aid sits at 4.4%. That means that out of the 902.05 million shares in the tradable float, 39.13 million shares are sold short by the bears. If this company can deliver the earnings news the bulls are looking for, then shares of RAD could trend sharply higher post-earning as a sharp short-covering rally takes over.

From a technical perspective, RAD is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $2.62 to its recent high of $6.15 a share. During that uptrend, shares of RAD have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of RAD within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on RAD, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $6 to its 52-week high at $6.15 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 31.18 million shares. If that breakout hits, then RAD will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $7 to $8 a share, or even $9 a share.

I would simply avoid RAD or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below both its 50-day moving average of $5.36 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then RAD will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $5 to $4.50 a share, or even $4 a share.

Cintas

My final earnings short-squeeze play is corporate identity uniforms and related business services provider Cintas (CTAS), which is set to release numbers on Thursday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Cintas to report revenue of $1.12 billion on earnings of 68 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Cintas is pretty high at 6.9%. That means that out of the 99.88 million shares in the tradable float, 6.69 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 0.7%, or by 46,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of CTAS could soar sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their short positions.

From a technical perspective, CTAS is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six month, with shares moving higher from its low of $44.01 to its recent high of $57.99 a share. During that uptrend, shares of CTAS have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CTAS within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're in the bull camp on CTAS, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $55.97 to its 52-week high at $57.99 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 550,661 shares. If that breakout hits, then CTAS will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $65 to $70 a share.

I would avoid CTAS or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day moving average of $53.50 a share to more near-term support at $52.27 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then CTAS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $49 to its 200-day moving average of $47.86 a share.

To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Thursday, February 6, 2014

What Will Time Warner Do Post-Earnings?

With shares of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) trading around $63, is TWX an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Time Warner is a media and entertainment company. The company operates in three reporting segments: Networks, Film, and TV Entertainment and Publishing. Networks consist of television networks, premium pay, basic-tier television services, and digital media properties. Film and TV Entertainment consists of feature film, television, home video, and video game production and distribution, while Publishing consists of magazine publishing. Through its segments, Time Warner is able to move audiences around the world. With such a large and growing audience, look for Time Warner to continue to drive profits through its media and entertainment.

Time Warner today reported financial results for its fourth-quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2013. Chair and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bewkes said that, "We had another very successful year in 2013, with Turner, Home Box Office and Warner Bros. all posting record profits while also investing for future growth. We grew Adjusted Operating Income by 8 percent and Adjusted EPS by 16 percent — our fifth consecutive year of double-digit Adjusted EPS growth.”

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

Time Warner stock has been moving higher over the last couple of years. However, the stock is currently trading sideways and may need time to stabilize. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Time Warner is trading below its rising key averages which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

TWX

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Time Warner options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Time Warner options

25.19%

70%

68%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

March Options

Steep

Average

April Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Time Warner’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Time Warner look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q4

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-7.63%

50.00%

92.86%

27.12%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

4.91%

0.20%

10.25%

-0.57%

Earnings Reaction

0.87%*

-0.79%

-0.37%

-0.50%

Time Warner has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Time Warner’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Time Warner stock done relative to its peers, News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), and sector?

Time Warner

News Corp

Walt Disney

Comcast

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-9.62%

-13.70%

-6.61%

2.80%

-3.47%

Time Warner has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Time Warner provides media and entertainment through a variety of mediums to consumers and businesses all around the world. The company today reported financial results for its fourth-quarter and full year ended December 31, 2013. The stock has been moving higher, but is currently trading sideways. Earnings and revenue figures have been increasing over the last four quarters, which has kept investors happy. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Time Warner has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Time Warner does this upcoming quarter.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Microsoft names Nadella its next CEO

SAN FRANCISCO — Microsoft's board of directors has named company insider Satya Nadella as CEO to succeed Steve Ballmer.

Nadella is Microsoft's third CEO in its 39-year history.

The Redmond, Wash.-based software giant also replaced Chairman Bill Gates with John Thompson, the company's lead independent director. Gates remains on the board and assumes the title of "founder and technology advisor."

PROFILE: Just who is Microsoft's Satya Nadella?

"During this time of transformation, there is no better person to lead Microsoft than Satya Nadella," said Gates in prepared remarks.

Microsoft shares were up 0.3%, to $36.58, in early trading.

VIDEO: Bill Gates welcomes new CEO

Veteran executive Nadella, who has been with the software giant for more than two decades, is a rising star within Microsoft's ranks. He's been been running its enterprise and cloud divisions, business units that have performed favorably.

FIRST TAKE: What took Microsoft so long?

"He's a very talented, technical leader," says Zynga CEO Don Mattrick, who ran Microsoft's Xbox division until July. "It will be interesting to see what he does. It's a transition for Microsoft, in what it intends to do for its growth agenda."

The selection of Nadella to take over comes as the company's path is uncertain. Since Ballmer took the helm 13 years ago, a lot has changed in how people use computing. That has shifted the balance against Microsoft in mobile and Internet businesses in particular.

"The opportunity ahead for Microsoft is vast, but to seize it, we must focus clearly, move faster and continue to transform. A big part of my job is to accelerate our ability to bring innovative products to our customers more quickly," said Nadella in a statement.

Microsoft relevance has long been waning. Saddled with a legacy of ho-hum business computing software, the software behemoth has been slow to move on exciting consumer products.

"Ballmer's biggest failure is his lack of vision.! He showed a lot of fear and derision of any new, emerging product categories. That fear rubs on an organization," says Mark Rolston, founder of argodesign.

Ballmer had become the perennial whipping boy of the tech world for milking its legacy Windows operating system amid struggles to adapt to the Internet, mobile and cloud computing booms.

As a result, a series of missteps over the past decade have revealed Microsoft lacking a visionary leader capable of big bets on the next computing revolution, a void expected to be filled by its new chief.

Ballmer may have blown it one too many times. The launch of Windows 8 was troubled to say the least. Ditto for its mobile versions and lack of market traction for its software powering smartphones and tablets.

Things also took a turn for the worse for Ballmer when activist investor Jeff Ubben took a stake in Microsoft in April and began exerting pressure on the company to change.

Maybe the task of software soothsayer was just too much. By August, Ballmer announced he was planning to step down following a search for his successor. He told The Wall Street Journal at the time that he couldn't change Microsoft quickly enough. "Maybe I'm an emblem of an old era, and I have to move on," the 57-year-old Ballmer told the paper as his eyes reportedly welled up.

Contributing: Alistair Barr and Jon Swartz


Sunday, February 2, 2014

These "Triple Threat" Firms Will Deliver Your Best Returns in 2014

As readers of my Permanent Wealth Investor know, alternative money management firms are some of my favorite securities for investors to own.

After a great run in 2013, those firms will have a hard act to follow in 2014.

But, here's the thing: the same sources that drove income last year for these companies are firmly in place. And will be throughout 2014.

So, what's so great about alternative money management firms?

They're great for both growth and income-oriented investors because their revenue comes from a "triple threat" of catalysts that can drive your best returns in 2014...

How Multiple Profits Pass Straight to Your Pocket

First off, alternative money management firms and private-equity firms charge fees based on the amount of assets under management. With billions of dollars in "AUM," or "assets under management," these firms are seeing big dollars each year in annual management fees.

On top of the management fees there are also performance fees, which can come to about 20% of the performance gains in a given account.

Finally, there's the capital appreciation of the capital these funds invest for themselves, which gives them an added layer of bottom-line performance that can drive their share prices higher.

The multiple revenue sources feeding alternative investment and private-equity firms are in large part what makes them such a great asset class for income investors. Yet the structure of these funds also makes them well-suited for both growth and income investors.

You see, most of these firms are structured as a limited partnership, which means at least 90% of their earnings must be "passed through" to shareholders. That means they are set up differently than traditional public corporations. While traditional corporate structures are designed to retain earnings, pass-through entities are designed to funnel their earnings directly to shareholders.

The Extra Tax "Boost" That Enhances Your Return

One huge reason why pass-through securities are so attractive is because the money paid out to shareholders (also known as unitholders in the case of most pass-through securities) is only taxed once at the corporate level.

This single taxation, as opposed to the double taxation on traditional corporations, means dividend payouts from pass-through entities are much bigger, and hence many of their annual dividend yields are much more attractive than regular corporate dividends.

For unitholders, pass-through securities offer the limited liability protection of traditional corporations, but without the double tax bite you take from Uncle Sam. And, because these entities don't have to contend with retained earnings, they are usually much more efficient and have far fewer financial barriers between money earned and the unitholders.

Finally, one of the most attractive aspects of alternative money management, pass-through securities is their outstanding yields. Many pay out distributions (dividends) that amount to a 5% to 10% yield.

Two Great Companies to Get You Started

Although there are many great companies to choose from in the alternative investment management space, there are two that I really like, and that investors should consider owning. The first is hedge fund titan Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (NYSE: OZM).

Founded in 1994 by former Goldman Sachs' proprietary trader and self-made billionaire Daniel Och, OZM is one of the largest institutional alternative asset managers in the world, with approximately $38.5 billion in assets under management as of November 2013.

Through the management of assets for large institutions and select high-net-worth clients, OZM collects substantial management fees of about 1.5% per year on total assets. Finally, the firm charges its customers a percentage of profits, around 20%, which in the business is known as an incentive allocation. The multiple revenue sources feeding OZM are in large part what make it an ideal pick to benefit from a strong bull market.

Last year, the company's AUM soared to record levels that increased some 21% from the prior year. In 2013, OZM's three equity hedge funds were each up more than 10% for the year through October, versus 5.5% during the same period for the average equity hedge fund. The firm also earned $72.3 million in incentive income in Q3, 2013, up from $8 million in the same quarter a year earlier.

Last quarter, OZM declared a dividend of 25 cents per share, a 2% quarterly yield for the stock. Annualized, that's a 6% yield. That's solid, but when you consider the share price on OZM is up more than 50% over the past 12 months, you get the real sense of why I like this stock.

Another stalwart firm in this space that I really like is The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX). This is the largest private-equity firm in the United States, with $248.1 billion in total assets under management as of September 2013. That's an incredible amount of total assets, and the sheer size of Blackstone's fiscal might is what helps makes it such a revenue and earnings machine.

Founded by Wall Street veterans and former Lehman Brothers bankers Stephen Schwartzman and Pete Peterson in 1985, Blackstone managers have accumulated decades of experience and fiscal know-how when it comes to generating returns for investors. Like many private-equity firms, Blackstone bought assets on the cheap during the Great Recession, and in recent years it's cashed in on those discounted acquisitions. Some of the highest-profile holdings in Blackstone's investment portfolio include marine-life themed amusement park SeaWorld Entertainment, and Hilton Hotels.

BX shares currently yield 3%, which is solid if not spectacular. What is spectacular, however, is the share price and dividend gain of more than 100% in 2013.

2014 should be another great year for money management firms. That means investors seeking high income and great capital appreciation need to take note, and embrace the alternative.

The total return potential in these securities is just too good to pass up.