Tuesday, April 29, 2014

What Sterling's ban means for Clipper finances

NBA Commissioner: Donald Sterling banned   NBA Commissioner: Donald Sterling banned NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The NBA dropped a heavy hammer on Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling. He has been banned for life from the league. He was fined $2.5 million.

And league commissioner Adam Silver said he will work to force Sterling to sell the team.

What happens now to the finances of the team and to Sterling's personal fortune?

First, a sale would likely mean a huge payday for Sterling, who has become one of the most reviled team owners in sports.

But it's not clear that Silver will be able to force Sterling to sell. Such a move requires the support of 22 of the other 29 owners. Many of them might be nervous about setting such a precedent, although Silver said Tuesday he expects to win that vote.

The Clippers team is worth $575 million, up from the $12 million Sterling reportedly paid in 1981, according to estimates from Forbes, a leading source of data on the finances of professional sports teams. That valuation would mean a 12% annual gain.

The most recent NBA team to change hands was the Milwaukee Bucks. It sold for $550 million -- 35% more than the team's estimated worth.

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As for the ongoing finances for the team, a dozen sponsors announced on Monday they had ended or suspended sponsorship deals. But it's not clear how many have actually stopped making payments to the team.

Sports marketing consultant Marc Ganis said it's unlikely that sponsor contracts would allow them to cancel due to comments made by Sterling or similar controversies.

"[Sponsors] don't want to be connected with a brand as reviled as the Clippers brand is at the moment," said Ganis. "But they still may be required to make payments by the existing contracts."

And some sponsors may return to the team now that the NBA has banned Sterling, Ganis said.

Indeed, Silver said Tuesday he is hopeful he will be able to win them back.

"I would say the marketing partners of the Clippers and partners of the entire NBA should judge us by our response to this incident," he said.

"I'm hopeful there will be no long-term damage to the league or to th! e Clippers organization," he said. "I can understand how upset [the corporate sponsors] are, and I'll do my best to bring them back into the NBA family."

Even if the Clippers take a revenue hit, the team is well positioned to stay profitable.

The team already turns a healthy profit on relatively low revenue, according to sports business experts.

The Clippers brought in $128 million in annual revenue in the most recent year, according to the most recent estimates by Forbes. That places the team's revenue near the bottom among the NBA's 30 teams. But the Clippers still turned a $15 million profit, Forbes estimates.

"This is a team that historically had low revenue and low attendance, and made money in spite of that," said Ganis.

Abdul-Jabbar on 'plantation mentality'   Abdul-Jabbar on 'plantation mentality'

And its finances and attendance have improved considerably since the team moved into the Staples Center in 1999. The team has been profitable every year since, according to Forbes.

Before the move, the Clippers typically had the worst attendance in the league, averaging just over 10,000 fans a game.

Since Staples opened, attendance has averaged 17,162, even though the Clippers had only four winning seasons in 15 years.

And as the team became a winner the past three years, its average attendance reached 19,200 a game.

Even if some fans boycott the team next year, continued on-court success could keep most of the seats filled.

And with Sterling banned, it's likely that many angry fans will again embrace the Clippers.

A spokesman for the Clippers did not respond to a request for comment earlier in the day ahead of the announcement. To top of page

Top 10 Cheapest Stocks To Buy For 2014

Top 10 Cheapest Stocks To Buy For 2014: Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Inc ( SCMP)

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc., incorporated on December 9, 2008, is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on research, discovery, development and commercialization of drugs based on ion channel activators known as prostones. The Company's prostone-based compounds target the ClC-2 and big potassium (BK), ion channels. It is focused on developing prostones to treat gastrointestinal, ophthalmic, neurologic, and oncology-based inflammatory disorders, and is also considering other therapeutic applications of its drug technology. The Company's products include AMITIZA (lubiprostone) and RESCULA (unoprostone isopropyl).

AMITIZA

The Company's AMITIZA is being marketed in the United States for three gastrointestinal indications under a license agreement, or the Takeda Agreement, with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, or Takeda. The three gastrointestinal indications include chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC), in adults, irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C), in adult women, and opioid-induced constipation (OIC), in adult patients with chronic, non-cancer pain. AMITIZA for OIC received approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in April 2013. In Japan, AMITIZA is marketed under a license, commercialization and supply agreement, or the Abbott Agreement, with Abbott Japan Co. Ltd. (Abbott), for the gastrointestinal indication of chronic constipation (CC), excluding constipation caused by organic diseases. In Switzerland, the Company is marketing AMITIZA.

RESCULA

The Company holds license agreements for RESCULA in the United States and Canada and the rest of the world, with the exception of Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. The Company is commercializing RESCULA (unoprostone isopropyl ophthalmic solution) 0.1! 5% for the lowering of intraocular pressure (IOP), in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension in th e United States. RESCULA may be used as an agent or concomit! antly with other topical ophthalmic drug products to lower intraocular pressure. RESCULA is a BK channel activator and has a different mechanism of action than other IOP lowering agents on the market.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By James Brumley]

    Still, for the nimble who know when to get out, OREX is one of the few cheap stocks worth a closer look.

    Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP)

    Finally, though the price of $7.60 clearly qualifies it as one pf the cheapest of the cheap stocks out there in the pharmaceutical world, that’s not the reason Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP) may be worth a look here. It’s the 30% slide we’ve seen SCMP stock suffer since peaking in mid-January. It’s not a pullback that’s bound to go unchallenged by the bulls.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Another under-$10 stock that's starting to trend within range of triggering a major breakout trade is Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP), which is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary drugs based on prostones, and other novel drug technologies. This stock is off to a decent start in 2013, with shares up by 26%.

    If you take a look at the chart for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, you'll notice that this stock has been downtrending badly for the last four months, with shares dumping hard from its high of $10.48 to its recent low of $5.40 a share. During that downtrend, shares of SCMP have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, the downside volatility for SCMP looks to be over in the short-term since the stock has started to reverse its downtrend and enter an uptrend. That reverse is quickly pushing shares of SCMP within range of triggering a major breakout trade above a key downtrend line.

    Traders! should now look for long-biased trades in SCMP if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $6.33 to $6.66 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 115,383 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then SCMP will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $7.09 to $7.67 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give SCMP a chance to tag $8 to $9 a share.

    Traders can look to buy SCMP off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at $5.58 to $5.40 a share. One can also buy SCMP off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/top-10-cheapest-stocks-to-buy-for-2014-2.html

Monday, April 28, 2014

Dollar gets boost vs. yen from housing data, yields

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday after U.S. housing data suggested the pace of existing-home sales may pick up, relieving some pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero.

Reuters Enlarge Image Investors are watching for an uptick in euro-zone inflation this week.

A gauge of U.S. pending home sales rose 3.4% in March, marking the first increase in nine months, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. U.S. data will culminate on Friday with the employment report for March.

The dollar (USDJPY)  rose to ¥102.46 from ¥102.14 late Friday, in line with an increase in U.S. Treasury yields on Monday. The Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet Wednesday. While it's unlikely that the BOJ will implement further monetary easing so soon after the April 1 consumption-tax increase, any remarks hinting at further action are likely to attract attention, said Dean Popplewell, director of currency analysis and research at OANDA.

The ICE dollar index (DXY) , which pits the greenback against six rivals, fell to 79.695 from 79.763 late Friday. The WSJ Dollar Index (XX:BUXX) , which measures the dollar against a wider basket of rivals, was at 73.04 versus 73.05.

/quotes/zigman/4868099/realtime/sampled USDJPY 102.4800, +0.2917, +0.2854% Dollar-yen to end April with loss

Movement in the currencies market has been limited as investors have been grappling for clues on possible central-bank action across the globe. In the U.S. and U.K., that includes hints on the timing of the first rate hike. In Japan and the euro zone, that amounts to the likelihood of further easing in the near future.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to begin a two-day meeting on Tuesday. "Any statement that will convince investors that the Fed intends to keep rates lower for longer should cap the dollar's strength," said Popplewell.

The euro (EURUSD)  rose to $1.3851 from $1.3836 late Friday. Christian Noyer, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, said Monday the euro's strength is weighing on prices, matching comments from several ECB officials. German inflation data is due Tuesday, which could be used as an indicator for the euro-zone inflation data due Wednesday, said Robert Lynch, a currency strategist at HSBC. "It's important to the extent that low inflation has been very much on the ECB's radar," he said.

Still, don't a lasting reaction in the euro exchange rate until there is concrete monetary-policy action, he said. "You've had softer data in some instances, you've had ECB comments talking about the possibility of easing. These developments haven't put sustained downward pressure on the euro," he said.

The British pound (GBPUSD)  was little changed at $1.6809 versus $1.6804 late Friday. Investors will be on the watch for the first read on first-quarter gross domestic product in the U.K., which is likely to show a continuation of improving growth in the country, said Lynch.

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The Australian dollar (AUDUSD)  inched down to 92.59 U.S. cents from 92.69 U.S. cents late Friday.

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Sunday, April 27, 2014

Las Vegas Is Back to Its Winning Ways

The recovery in Las Vegas is gaining steam, and after 6.4% growth in May and 4.3% growth over the past year, the gaming companies there have some room to breathe. MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) have the most to gain, but Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) will benefit as well. In the following video, gaming analyst Travis Hoium covers who will benefit the most from Las Vegas' growth and one stock to stay away from. 

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Friday, April 25, 2014

Beaten Down Small Cap BioScrip Inc (BIOS): Time for a Second Look? IHF & XLV

Beaten down small cap home care and infusion stock BioScrip Inc (NASDAQ: BIOS) was recently called a potential takeover target, meaning its worth taking a closer look at the stock along with healthcare ETFs like the iShares Dow Jones US Health Care ETF (NYSEARCA: IHF) or the Health Care SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLV). I should mention that during the third quarter of last year, we had BioScrip in our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) portfolio after the stock had taken a beating but we also believed the company is on the verge of turning a profit and is potentially undervalued.

What is BioScrip Inc?

Small cap BioScrip is a leading provider in comprehensive, cost-effective pharmaceutical, home care solutions and infusion solutions. BioScrip partners with physicians, healthcare payors, government agencies, hospital systems and pharmaceutical manufacturers to provide patients access to post-acute care services by delivering customer-focused pharmacy and related healthcare infusion therapy services in alternate-site settings.

There really aren't any other publicly traded socks that offer a good benchmark for comparison with BioScrip, but the iShares Dow Jones US Health Care ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Healthcare Providers Index by investing in 49 health care provider stocks while the Health Care SPDR ETF tracks the S&P Health Care Select Sector Index through 56 holdings in Pharmaceuticals (47%), Biotechnology (18.11%), Health Care Providers & Services (15.46%), Health Care Equipment & Supplies (15.14%), Life Sciences Tools & Services (3.59%) and Health Care Technology (0.70%).

What You Need to Know or Be Warned About BioScrip Inc

Earlier this month, Oscar Schafer, the managing partner of O.S.S. Capital Management and chairman of Rivulet Capital, mentioned BioScrip as a stock pick and a potential takeover target while on CNBC. But it should be mentioned that in mid January, Schafer was part of a Barron's Roundtable when he talked about the company in detail and stated:

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We recently bought a large stake in BioScrip [BIOS]. In the past few years CEO Rick Smith has radically transformed the company from its retail and mail-order-pharmacy roots into one of only three national providers of home-infusion-therapy services. BioScrip stumbled last year in integrating four major acquisitions, creating an opportunity for us. Demand for infusion therapy is growing at a mid-teens rate as a result of aging demographics and a robust pipeline of specialty drugs that need to be delivered intravenously. Infusion therapy traditionally was administered in a hospital, but has shifted to an outpatient setting in the past two decades. Home therapy is more comfortable for the patients and much more cost-effective than hospital and in-patient settings.

He added that the home infusion market is a highly fragmented one with 70% of infusion pharmacies being independent, but the large managed-care companies are pushing into the industry to consolidate in order to ensure consistency of care. The other national consolidators include Option Care, which Walgreen Company (NYSE: WAG) acquired in 2007, and Coram, which was purchased by CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) in November. In addition:

Government reimbursement isn't a big risk for BioScrip. Medicare doesn't cover home infusion, which forces patients to get treatment in the high-cost hospital setting. Eventually, the government will fix this issue.

Late last February, BioScrip fell as much as 13% after the reporting fourth quarter earnings that exceeded top line expectations but also missed at the bottom line. Specifically, fourth quarter revenue from continuing operations increased 34.7% to $243.5 million as Infusion Services segment revenue totaled $212.0 million verses $135.6 million thanks to the acquisitions of HomeChoice and CarePoint plus strong organic growth while the loss from continuing operations, net of taxes, was $15.4 million verses a net loss of $1.4 million. Revenue from continuing operations for 2013 rose 27.1% to $842.2 million for 2012 as Infusion Services segment revenue came in at $697.3 million verses $481.6 million while the loss from continuing operations, net of taxes, was $53.6 million verses a net loss of $8.3 million. The CEO did comment that:

"We believe that 2014 is off to a strong start. The recently announced agreement to sell our Home Health division, combined with our debt refinancing, enhances our financial flexibility and allows us to focus on growing our infusion platform to drive shareholder value creation. Our strong clinical programs, customer-focused model and flexible go-to-market approach are the cornerstones of our infusion program and position us very well in the industry."

Otherwise, it should be noted that BioScrip will release its 2014 first quarter financial results on Thursday, May 8, after the market closes.

Share Performance: BioScrip Inc vs. IHF & XLV

On Thursday, small cap BioScrip fell 0.14% to $7.36 (BIOS has a 52 week trading range of $5.61 to $17.62 a share) for a market cap of $501.86 million plus the stock is up 1.24% since the start of the year, down 43.7% over the past year and up 200.4% over the past five years. Here is a look at the long term performance of BioScrip verses that of health care performance benchmarks iShares Dow Jones US Health Care ETF or the Health Care SPDR ETF:

As you can see from the above performance chart, small cap BioScrip has given investors a more volatile performance than health care benchmarks iShares Dow Jones US Health Care ETF or the Health Care SPDR ETF:

Finally, here is a look at the latest technical charts for all three investments: 

The Bottom Line. Despite the past problems, small cap home care and infusion stock BioScrip might just be worth a closer look before the stock reports earnings in two weeks.

SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) previously had an open position in BIOS. To find out what other open positions SCN EO currently has, and to learn why so many traders and investors are relying on this premium subscription service, click here to find out more.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Time Warner Cable Q1 income up on Internet…

Time Warner Cable said Thursday its first quarter net income rose 19.5% to $479 million as gains in customers for broadband Internet service helped offset continuing losses in cable TV.

The nation's second largest cable service provider, which is in the midst of seeking approval to merge with Comcast, lost 34,000 video customers during the quarter, narrowing from larger losses in the previous quarters but underscoring the challenges it sees in "cord-cutters" who flock to online streaming. But the company also reported 269,000 new customers in the broadband Internet unit.

Diluted earnings per share of $1.70 for the quarter beat analysts' estimates by a penny.

Quarterly revenue jumped 2% to $5.6 billion.

Shares of Time Warner Cable rose 0.72% to $140.88.

Its business of providing cable TV, Internet and phone to residential homes suffered losses as TV customers -- still the single largest source of revenue -- continue to flee. Residential-services revenue fell 0.9% to $4.56 billion. The decline was offset by a gain in average revenue per Internet subscriber brought on by increases in prices and equipment rental charges.

As of the end of March 31, TWC had 11.2 million video customers and 11.4 million using broadband Internet.

To appease federal regulators who are reviewing Comcast's $45 billion deal to buy TWC, the two companies said they will divest about 3 million customers if the merger is approved.

The company also attributed rising programming costs for the 1.8% drop in the residential business unit's operating income. Programming costs grew 2.9% to $1.3 billion. Average monthly programming costs per residential video subscriber rose 10.2% year-over-year to $37.69 for the quarter.

The business services unit's revenue grew 24% to $668 million as sales for all major components -- video, Internet and voice -- increased.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

3 Stocks That Just Aced Their Exams

Facebook Logo Twitter Logo RSS Logo Louis Navellier Popular Posts: Google Stock Split Is All Good For GOOG Investors5 Biotech Stocks Promising Future Rewards3 Stocks to Buy Now That Spring is In the Air Recent Posts: 3 Stocks That Just Aced Their Exams PPG Stock Paints a Bright Future (PPG) YHOO Stock Moves Forward as YHOO Earnings Grow View All Posts

We are now well into earnings season with the first big week of the quarter behind us. Although we have several weeks to go, there have already been some interesting results that have led to changes in Portfolio Grader rankings for select stocks.

green up arrow 630 300x200 3 Stocks That Just Aced Their Exams Source: Flickr

One of the biggest drivers of stock upgrades is a large earnings surprise that catches the Street off guard. Not only does this mean that the fundamentals of the company are improving, but stocks reporting positive surprises usually attract some strong buying that can push the quantitative grade up a notch or two as well.

Here’s a look at three companies that simply delivered on their most recent earnings reports, and whose stocks have gotten fundamental upgrades as a result.

Next Page

Upgraded Stocks: United Rentals (NYSE:URI)

UnitedRentals185 3 Stocks That Just Aced Their ExamsUnited Rentals (NYSE:URI) is in a pretty basic business. URI rents construction and industrial equipment to construction companies, municipalities and other customers. Of course, that equipment includes things such as backhoes, forklifts, earth-moving equipment and portable generators, so … it’s not exactly the most exciting business in the world.

However, the results make URI stock one of the most exciting equities of the current earnings season. United Rentals beat estimates by more than 26% as it posted yet another consecutive positive earnings surprise.

CEO Michael Kneeland expressed confidence that the good times will continue. He told shareholders "We now see solid demand in almost every market, giving us further confidence in our full year outlook.”

Portfolio Grader likes what it see as well and this week upgraded URI stock to an “A,” signaling that URI stock has earned a “strong buy” recommendation.

Next Page

Upgraded Stocks: Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ:IBKR)

InteractiveBrokers185 3 Stocks That Just Aced Their ExamsInteractive Brokers Group (NASDAQ:IBKR) had a huge quarter, with the broker and market-maker group’s revenues and profits surpassing Wall Street's expectations.

Earnings per share jumped from 14 cents per share to 34 cents, exceeded consensus estimates by 17%. Revenues were $355 million, compared to just $216 million in the same quarter last year. Margins got a lot fatter this quarter as well — IBKR boasted 61% pretax profit margins, up from 38% in the year-ago quarter. Lastly, customer accounts grew 16% year-over-year to 252,000 as investors and traders continue to return to the stock and bond markets.

Portfolio Grader recognized the strong improvements in the fundamentals and upgraded IBKR stock to an “A” this week, signifying a “strong buy” recommendation.

Next Page

Upgraded Stocks: Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD)

RiteAid185 3 Stocks That Just Aced Their ExamsWall Street has continually estimated the reality and strength of the earnings turnaround at Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD). The drugstore chain posted a 150% positive earning surprise in the most recent quarter as business conditions just continue to improve for the company.

Total revenues increased 2.2%, primarily as a result of an increase in pharmacy same-store sales, which improved 2.1% year-over-year. RAD also guided higher and now projects sales of $26 billion to $26.5 billion and EPS of 31 cents to 42 cents, which is above the original analyst estimates.

Last week, RAD stock was upgraded to an “A” and is currently a strong buy.

Louis Navellier is the editor of Blue Chip Growth.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Hedge Funds Shake Financial System More Than Banks During Crises: Study

Hedge funds may play an even bigger role than banks in transmitting financial shocks to the rest of the market, and thus may intensify systemic risk more than previously thought, according to new research.

An economic letter issued last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reported a new risk measurement that suggests that financial crises intensify spillover effects among certain types of financial institutions.

It shows that hedge funds may be the most important transmitters of shocks during crises.

Reint Gropp, a visiting scholar at the San Francisco Fed from Goethe University in Frankfurt, developed a new way to measure spillover effects, and estimated the effects for investment banks, commercial banks, insurance companies and hedge funds.

How big and how long risk spillovers among financial institutions last depend on whether markets are in normal times or in crisis, Gropp reported. They can be much larger during crisis times.

He found that insurance companies — the case of AIG during the recent financial crisis notwithstanding — are not systemically important in causing distress elsewhere. They tend to be relatively safe in crises, as their returns are negatively correlated to those of other institutions.

In contrast, spillovers from hedge funds during crises become huge, and make the funds more important shock transmitters than either commercial or investment banks.

The reason is that hedge funds are opaque and highly leveraged, Gropp said. If forced to liquidate under duress, they may sustain big losses, possibly leading to further defaults or threatening systemically important entities both directly as counterparties or creditors and indirectly through asset price adjustments.

How big are the spillover effects from hedge funds? Gropp said that during normal market conditions a one percentage-point increase in hedge fund riskiness raises risk of investment banks by an estimated 0.09 percentage point.

During crises, the same shock increases the risk of investment banks by 0.71 percentage point.

By comparison, a one percentage-point increase in risk of commercial banks leads to a 0.01 percentage-point increase in risk of investment banks during normal times, and a 0.05 percentage point increase during crises.

Hedge fund spillover effects are largest after 10 to 15 days, and subside after about three months, according to Gropp.

He said more research is needed to explain the mechanisms that underlie the estimated spillover effects.

Monday, April 21, 2014

AS&E Lands $60 Million Government Contract

An unidentified "government agency" has awarded American Science & Engineering (NASDAQ: ASEI  ) a $60 million contract to supply X-ray inspection systems, the company (partially) revealed Tuesday.

And while the precise identity of the agency in question was not revealed, other details were. First and foremost, this contract is what is known as an indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) award. As such, it's best considered as an "umbrella" contract whose dollar value may or may not ultimately be reached. The actual value of the revenues AS&E will receive depends on how many, and how large, task orders it receives under the IDIQ umbrella.

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In that regard, AS&E also announced Tuesday that it has already received its first such task order, with its government agency customer ordering $11.2 million worth of X-ray equipment for use in "counter-drug and anti-terrorism missions."

Despite the good news, AS&E shares closed down 0.3% at $56.03 on Tuesday.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Has Forward Air Made You Any Real Money?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Forward Air (Nasdaq: FWRD  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Forward Air generated $50.8 million cash while it booked net income of $53.3 million. That means it turned 8.6% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Forward Air look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 14.0% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Forward Air investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 8.1% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 28.7% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Looking for alternatives to Forward Air? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Forward Air to My Watchlist.

Friday, April 18, 2014

Last-Minute Sign-Ups Improve Outlook for Obamacare

Obama Health Care Carolyn Kaster/AP WASHINGTON -- A surge of eleventh-hour enrollments has improved the outlook for President Barack Obama's health care law, with more people signing up overall and a much-needed spark of interest among young adults. Nonetheless, Obama's announcement Thursday that 8 million have signed up for subsidized private insurance, and that 35 percent of them are younger than 35, is just a peek at what might be going on with the nation's newest social program. Still to be announced is what share of those enrolled were previously uninsured -- the true test of Obama's Affordable Care Act -- and how many actually secured coverage by paying their first month's premiums. "This thing is working," a confident Obama said of his signature domestic achievement. The days of website woes and canceled policies seemed far behind. State-by-state statistics, expected as early as next week, will provide a much fuller picture. A key question is how many of those signed up were young adults, ages 18-34. They're the health care overhaul's most coveted demographic because they're healthier than older adults and their premiums can help cross-subsidize care for the sick. That would help hold down future premium increases. According to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation, young adults 18-34 represent about 40 percent of the people eligible to buy coverage in the health care law's new insurance markets. The White House says that group now accounts for 28 percent of those who have picked a plan in states where the federal government is running the insurance exchanges. Not perfect, but not bad either, said Larry Levitt, an insurance expert with Kaiser. "Enrollment among young adults ended up lower than their share of the target population but sufficient to keep the market stable in the vast majority of the country," he said. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is forecasting only a slight average increase in premiums for 2015. Some private insurance experts expect big differences around the country, predicting that insurers will seek noticeably higher premiums, around 6 percent to 8 percent on average. Republicans were having none of Obama's celebration. A statement from the office of Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said he remains committed to repealing the law and replacing it. The president appeared in the White House briefing room to trumpet the new figures, which beat initial projections by 1 million people Following the disastrous rollout of the insurance exchanges in October, when HealthCare.gov was virtually unusable, Democrats have been hoping that higher-than-expected results could help their candidates reclaim the political high ground ahead of the midterm elections. Seven months out from Election Day, they're seeking to turn the page on the law's flawed debut -- a strategy underscored last week when Obama announced that Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, who became the face of the rollout failure, was stepping down. Polling shows the law remains unpopular in much of the country, yet most Americans say they don't expect it to be entirely repealed, but changed in some way. With the insurance markets looking increasingly viable, Obama and Democrats were hoping to move the political debate away from repeal and toward efforts to fix lingering issues. Republicans have been reluctant to pursue fixes for fear of tacitly embracing the overall law. Obama said that it's "absolutely possible" to make improvements but that it would require a change of attitude from Republicans. -.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Why the Bitcoin Price Is Rising

With the deadline for the Chinese Bitcoin exchanges to be cut off from their bank accounts upon us as of today (Tuesday), the Bitcoin price is rising.

Wait, what?

bitcoin priceAs counterintuitive as it might seem, the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index is up about 10% today to about $500, although Bitcoin prices rose as high as $514.72.

At $500, the Bitcoin price is up a startling 40% from the low of $355 hit on Friday when several Chinese Bitcoin exchanges received notices from their banks that their accounts would be closed.

Even the Chinese are buying again, with the Bitcoin price in yuan up about 8.4% today to 3,125 yuan - up about 38% from its lows on Friday.

Bitcoin prices plunged last week on concerns that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) was quietly telling Chinese banks to sever ties with the exchanges by April 15 and that eventually it might even ban the digital currency.

But those fears were not realized.

For one thing, not every Bitcoin exchange has received a notice that its bank accounts would be closed, even though the deadline was today.

That includes the biggest Chinese exchange, BTC China.

"Our situation hasn't changed. We've been talking to banks, the ones we have personal relationships with, and so far we've not received any notice to close our business with them," BTC China Chief Executive Officer Bobby Lee told CoinDesk.

And just hours after the reports from the Chinese exchanges getting notices from their banks appeared Friday, the governor of the PBOC, Zhou Xiaochuan, made these surprising remarks at a regional economic conference:

"It is out of the question of banning Bitcoin as it is not started by central bank," Xiaochuan said. "Bitcoin is more a kind of tradable and collectible asset, such as stamps rather than a payment currency."

While not an official statement from the PBOC, the remarks eased the worst concerns about the central bank's intentions.

And it started the rally in the price of Bitcoin in both yuan and dollars that picked up even more steam today as several of the Chinese exchanges were able to continue doing business unhindered.

But with no official policy statements forthcoming, the events of the past several days still leaves a cloud of uncertainty hanging over Bitcoin in China.

Here's why that's probably not going to change for a while...

The Bitcoin Price Remains at the Mercy of the Chinese Government

It's obvious that Chinese officials aren't quite sure how to deal with Bitcoin, but you can't blame them.

Government regulators and central banks the world over are all struggling with Bitcoin, trying to figure out whether it's a commodity or a currency, and how to tax it.

The sudden rise in the popularity of Bitcoin in China last fall no doubt startled and concerned Chinese officials, who were already dealing with headaches such as an overheated real estate market and concerns over an erupting credit crisis.

When ordinary Chinese started pouring yuan into an unproven digital currency, it's not hard to see why the government wanted to slam on the brakes. That's why the PBOC in December told merchants they could not accept Bitcoin as payment and told banks they could not convert Bitcoin to yuan.

Those moves succeeded in cooling the ardor for Bitcoin in China and knocked the Bitcoin price from its highs of over $1,100.

While it's always hard to read what Chinese authorities might be thinking, it looks like the seemingly erratic moves on Bitcoin over the past several months are simply the PBOC's way of buying time until it can figure out exactly what it wants to do.

The central bank was unhappy with what it saw as a speculative bubble last fall, but did only what it saw necessary to prick it. Since then the PBOC appears content to let some Chinese dabble in Bitcoin as a hobby.

One thing's for sure: If the PBOC wanted to ban Bitcoin, it would have done so long ago. That it has resisted doing so hints that the central bank probably recognizes the digital currency's powerful potential to revolutionize the nature of money itself and does not want China to be left behind.

However, until the Chinese authorities can sort out what exactly how they want to treat Bitcoin, we're going to see a lot more policy fits and starts. And that's going to be just one more ingredient adding to the volatility in the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin prices have recovered somewhat to $500, but that's less than half its highs of last year. Some think the Bitcoin price will eventually get to $10,000 or even $1 million. What do you think? Let us know on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook using #bitcoinnews.

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Some in the mainstream media would have you believe that most of those investing in Bitcoin are naïve and unsophisticated fools who don't recognize a bubble when they see one. But that doesn't explain why some big names in venture capital are pouring millions of dollars into the digital currency, or why Wall Street is growing increasingly interested. Check Out Who's Investing in Bitcoin Now

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PBOC Deadline Day: Business as Usual for BTC China

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Google stock sinks as mobile struggles continue

android

A smartphone runs Google's Android software.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Investors are getting impatient with Google' mobile marketing strategy.

Google (GOOGL) shares sank 3% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the company posted first-quarter earnings and sales that missed expectations. Of particular concern was a 9% drop in payments from marketers per ad on Google sites.

The challenge for Google is convincing marketers to pay as much for mobile ads as they do for desktop ads, a task that's become increasingly pressing as Web usage shifts to smartphones.

Google Chief Business Officer Nikesh Arora said in a conference call Wednesday afternoon that the company's mobile ad revenue is being held up in part because merchants haven't spent enough time developing their mobile sites, assuming that customers will make more purchases via desktop.

"The journey is just beginning for advertisers on the mobile side," he said. As advertisers begin to see the potential of mobile ads, including location targeting, Arora added that the gap between desktop and mobile ad rates would likely close.

"Right now we can lead the horse to water, but we can't make it drink," he said.

Part of the way Google is addressing this issue in the meantime is through the "enhanced campaign" strategy it introduced last year, which requires advertisers to buy across multiple platforms.

Google still reported $15.4 billion in sales for the first quarter, up 19% versus last year, as consumers clicked on 26% more ads than they did a year ago. Earnings came in at $3.45 billion, up slightly from last year.

These are Google's first quarterly results since instituting a controversial 2-for-1 stock split earlier this month. Google shareholders were issued two shares for every one share they owned at half the price.

The company's newly issued Class C shares trade under its old ticker, "GOOG," and do not give investors the right to vote at its annual shareholder meeting. Class A shares now trade under the ticker "GOOGL," and come with voting rights.

The split, which was held up in court after shareholders sued to block it, further consolidates control of the company among the leadership triumvirate of CEO Larry Page, chairman Eric Schmidt and co-founder Sergey Brin.

Google stock has fallen 5.5% in the past month, part of a bro! ader slide in tech stocks. However, the drop lately has followed gains of more than 40% in the past year.

Why Google bought a drone company   Why Google bought a drone company

Google, like rival Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), has been spending big on emerging technologies recently as it works to expand outside its core search business.

Earlier this week, Google announced the acquisition of Titan Aerospace, a start-up that makes high-altitude, solar-powered drones that Google hopes to use to deliver Internet service. The Titan team will operate separately from Google, but will collaborate with divisions including Google Maps and Project Loon, which has been working on delivering Internet service from high-altitude balloons.

The search giant has also invested billions of dollars in driverless cars, wearable gadgets, military robots and, through its $3.2 billion purchase of Nest earlier this year, connected home devices. To top of page

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

BMW gets serious with plug-ins for N.Y. auto show

WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J. -- Even as it continues to develop its prowess in diesel engines, BMW is getting more serious about plug-in hybrids.

It gave a sneak peek at how a plug-in hybrid system that could work in the popular X5 midsize SUV. The system can power the car on electric drive alone for up to 20 miles, has the potential for being rated at 40 miles a gallon using the government's protocol for electric-car equivilent driving and can run electric-only at speeds up to 75 miles per hour.

The concept will be shown at the New York Auto Show preview this week.

"It's a connecting step" between BMW's i-Series plug-in electric models and its conventional models, Gerhard Thiel, project director for the X5 plug-in told a group of journalists at BMW's North American headquarters here Tuesday.

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While no announcement has been made about production version of the Concept X5 eDrive plug-in, BMW spokesman Manfred Poschenrieder says the brand is aiming at having a hybrid alternative in each of its major model ranges.

At present, its plug-in electric cars consist of an i3 electric city car, with an optional gas extender engine, and a soon-to-arrive i8 hybrid sports car on the way.

Poschenrieder says BMW could stand out in the market by giving plug-in capability to the X5 because it larger than most of the electrified cars out there. It holds more potential for better gas mileage without sacrifices -- adding weight, eating up passenger space for batteries or ending up cost well above competitive vehicles.

"It totally makes sense for us to hybridize such a car," he says.

If the concept becomes a production vehicle, however, it won't likely show up for more than a year.

Monday, April 14, 2014

5 Ways to Maximize 401(k) Tax Benefits

It is tax time again, and many Americans are struggling to wade through the piles of W-2s and 1099s to beat the April deadline. Charles Schwab Retirement Plan Services believes now is a good time for employees to know what they can do to maximize the tax benefits they receive from participating in their employer-sponsored 401(k) plan. It recommends these top five tips (presented here from 5 to 1) for better utilizing workplace retirement plans:

5. Avoid 401(k) loans, even when money is tight. 

Borrowing from your 401(k) should be an absolute last resort. Loans from a 401(k) plan must be repaid with after-tax dollars, negating many of the tax benefits of a 401(k). And, if you leave your job and are unable to repay the loan in-full, the outstanding balance is treated like a withdrawal, triggering a tax bill and potentially a 10 percent penalty on top of the tax.

4. Don’t burden yourself with withdrawals.

Any withdrawal from a 401(k) plan can carry significant tax consequences. If you withdraw money from your employer-sponsored retirement plan before the age of 59½, you'll likely face a 10 percent federal penalty. What's more, the government will take 20 percent of your withdrawal as an advance on your tax bill. Plus, some plans may bar employees who have taken a withdrawal from contributing for the next six months, causing another blow to your savings that can impact your long-term financial goals.

3. Get to know the Roth. 

A Roth 401(k) can offer a different kind of strategic tax planning opportunity. In a traditional 401(k) plan, contributions are made on a pre-tax basis, and taxes are paid when you take distributions from the plan. In a Roth 401(k), contributions are made on an after-tax basis, and distributions of any investment earnings are tax-free after you meet certain requirements.

2. Get credit where credit’s due.

Depending on your income and filing status, contributions to a qualified 401(k) plan may further lower your tax bill through the Saver's Credit (formerly known as the Retirement Savings Contributions Credit). The credit was established in 2002 and directly reduces your taxable income by a percentage of the amount you put into your 401(k) plan. According to the IRS, those who meet eligibility requirements can take a credit of up to $2,000 if filing jointly.

1. Bump up or max out your contributions.

Traditional 401(k) plans are funded with pre-tax dollars, which lowers a person’s taxable income. Making a significant contribution could put you into a lower tax bracket entirely, allowing you to keep even more of your paycheck. Studies have shown that a mere 10 percent of participants max out their contributions, so there is definitely room for most Americans to get more aggressive with their savings rate.

Also read on ThinkAdvisor:


Sunday, April 13, 2014

Why Investors Should Ignore the Nikkei's Plunge

Where did the Nikkei's (NIKKEIINDICES: ^NI225  ) gains go? After trouncing markets across the world with its eye-popping start to 2013, the world's third-leading economy has seen its top stock index fall dramatically over the past few weeks. The Nikkei did it again on Thursday, shedding 5.2% after plunging more than 7% in a single day last week. Investors are fretting over the losses, but is this fall something you should be concerned about -- or is this pullback just the dip you need to pick up the best Japanese stocks before another rise comes?

Don't panic...don't panic
Look no further than the yen for Nikkei's drop on Thursday. The U.S. dollar weakened due to fears that the Fed might slow quantitative easing later this year, and a weaker dollar strengthened the yen against the U.S. currency. That's not what Japanese investors wanted: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's unrivaled stimulus plan promises to kick-start inflation after decades of stagnation. While the yen has dropped dramatically against the dollar in the first half of 2013, the yen's volatility has unnerved some investors.

This isn't the time to sell, however. Volatility is only natural considering how fast and effectively Abe's aggressive monetary plan worked. Abe's new moves already pushed the Nikkei to five-year highs recently, and Japan's currency recently hit 100 yen to the dollar after trading at almost 70 yen to the dollar late last year. That's fast progress -- faster than many had predicted easing would work, and Abe's hardly finished. The Bank of Japan plans to double the country's monetary base, and while U.S. easing may or may not be slowing soon, Japan's certainly won't.

Abe has stuck to a 2% inflation goal as his target for stimulus, and Japan's nowhere near that figure yet. More easing will keep the yen falling against the dollar, regardless of what Ben Bernanke and the Fed have planned for QE infinity.

Ultimately, Japan's stimulus is a long-term project that will include plenty of volatility. Currency prices are prone to fluctuations, and Abe's unprecedented level of easing will cause the yen and Nikkei to soar or dive on small bits of news. Is Thursday's fall a correction after the year's torrid start? Absolutely. Is it a sign that Japan's stimulus isn't working? Not so.

That doesn't mean you should rush headfirst into any old Japanese stock on the hopes of a nationwide surge; as with all investing, picking the best stocks is the way to go. The country's top exporters have seen their stock rise and fall with the yen's volatility, but leading manufacturers such as Kubota (NASDAQOTH: KUBTY  ) and Komatsu (NASDAQOTH: KMTUY  ) are poised to ride a weaker yen higher to better compete against foreign rivals.

Komatsu has seen its sales fall in China, where the company leads the manufacturing industry. However, despite China's recent slowdown, Komatsu leadership still sees demand picking up between 5% and 10% in the world's second-largest economy as the Chinese government contemplates its own stimulus plans. The weak yen will mean that Komatsu's sales matter all the more, particularly as top competitor Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) , which has been hammered by the mining industry's decline, ramps up its own China operations. Caterpillar lags Komatsu in China, but it increased its Chinese sales year over year in the first quarter.

Kubota's a beneficiary of the yen as well. In fact, this stock has soared more than 9% in the past month, even after the Nikkei's recent plunge. Kubota is still chasing Deere in the agricultural-manufacturing and tractor industry, but leadership predicts that the yen's slide could push sales to a record high this fiscal year. The weak yen could also hurt the company by making it more costly to invest overseas -- something Kubota is ambitious to do as it looks to acquire firms specializing in making larger tractors.

The yen is set to keep falling
Despite the yen's recent volatility, Japan's currency will not soon strengthen much against the dollar. Shinzo Abe has put his government behind easing, and stimulus has defined his short tenure as prime minister as much as anything else. Quantitative easing may be under fire in the U.S., but it won't be stopping for a long time across the Pacific. Expect more volatility from the Nikkei and the yen, but over the next few years, Japan's best stocks are set to reward investors with superb gains.

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Friday, April 11, 2014

The Week Ahead: Another Scare Like 2010, 2011, and 2012?

The end of another rough trading week harkens back to the panic sell-offs that occurred in recent years and MoneyShow's Tom Aspray uses chart analysis to determine whether this sell-off will be followed by new bull market highs.

It was another rough week for the markets as the heavy selling came as the average investor was trying to digest the significance of the market rigging headline that I discussed last time. The selling hit panic levels on Thursday, but it is too early yet to conclude that the decline is already close to being over.

The technical picture last Wednesday allowed for two scenarios and, as of Friday, there is not enough evidence to be confident whether the large-cap Spyder Trust (SPY) and SPDR Dow Industrials (DIA) are going to join the Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQ) on the downside.

The plunge in the technology and biotechnology stocks is being tied to the perception that the economy is not strong enough to support the current high stock prices. This view is not really supported by the current numbers, as past market declines in this bull market have come in conjunction with much softer numbers than we are seeing now.

The current environment does remind me of the panic sell-offs that occurred in 2010, 2011, and 2012. I have circled these periods on the weekly close only chart of the S&P. For example, on August 27, 2010,  there was this Bloomberg headline "El-Erian Says `Alarming' Data Show U.S. Economy Slowing."

The S&P 500 had actually made its low in early July 2010, but had a secondary low at 1039, the day this article was published. Below the chart of the S&P 5000 is a chart of the S&P 500 Advance/Decline line which reveals that it had made a new high the prior April (point 1) . By February of 2011, the S&P 500 had risen to 1344.

chart

In the summer of 2011, there was the massive decline that began in late July that was followed by heavy selling in early August in reaction to the budget impasse and downgrade of US debt. By September, the fear of a double dip recession was being widely discussed. On September 7, a CNBC headline read  "US Economy Is Basically 'Still In Recession': Fed's Evans."

The S&P 500 dropped to a low of 1074 on October 4, before reversing to the upside. The A/D line had made a new high in early July (point 2). A week after the low, there was strong technical evidence that the lows were in place, leading to my article "Be Bold, Be Fearless.Buy the Dip." By April 2012, the S&P 500 was trading well above 1400.

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The A/D line made a new high that April, but by the end of the month, it had moved into the corrective mode. By May, the concern was over the troubles in the Eurozone with this headline on May 27 from the telegraph "Lloyd's of London preparing for euro collapse."

The S&P 500, which had traded as high as 1422 at the start of April, dropped to a low of 1266 on June 4, just five days after the article was published. The Euro dropped to a low of 1.2042 the next month and has been moving higher ever since. At the June lows, there were also strong technical signs that the correction was over, as I noted on June 6.

In the middle of September 2012, the A/D line made another new high (point 4), which is hard to tell from the chart. By the end of October, concerns over the economy and the outcome of the presidential election resulted in significant selling.

chart

The S&P 500 had reached a high of 1474 in September and, by the time this headline appeared on November 7, it was down to 1394. The S&P bottomed on November 16 at 1343 and then rallied to close the year at 1426, despite a year end decline in reaction to the "fiscal cliff."

As the S&P 500 chart indicates, the A/D line has made a series of higher highs in 2013 and early 2014 (line 5) as its most recent high was on April 4. It does not yet show a new downtrend, which would be consistent with a deeper correction in the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite.

chart

The bond market does seem to be a bit more worried as the yield on the 10 - Year T-Note looks ready to close at 2.63% as it has dropped below the lows of the past six weeks. The next strong support is in the 2.44-2.50% area and the weekly starc- band. The MACD shows no sign yet of bottoming as it is still in a downtrend, line c.

NEXT PAGE: What to Watch

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Thursday, April 10, 2014

5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons.

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They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price.

Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share.

But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.

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The key word in that last statement is "think." Just because a corporate insider thinks his or her stock is going to trade higher, that doesn't mean it will play out that way. Insiders can have all the conviction in the world that their stock is a buy, but if the market doesn't agree with them, the stock could end up going nowhere. Also, I say "usually" because sometimes insiders are loaned money by the company to buy their own stock. Those loans are often sweetheart deals and shouldn't be viewed as organic insider buying.

At the end of the day, it's large institutional money managers running big mutual funds and hedge funds that drive stock prices, not insiders. That said, many of these savvy stock operators will follow insider buying activity when they agree with the insider that the stock is undervalued and has upside potential. This is why it's so important to always be monitoring insider activity, but it's twice as important to make sure the trend of the stock coincides with the insider buying.

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Recently, a number of companies' corporate insiders have bought large amounts of stock. These insiders are finding some value in the market, which warrants a closer look at these stocks. Here's a look five stocks whose insiders have been doing some big buying per SEC filings.

BJ's Restaurants

One restaurant operator that insiders are loading up on here is BJ's Restaurants (BJRI), which offer pizzas, beers, appetizers, entrees, pastas, sandwiches, salads and desserts. Insiders are buying this stock into strength, since shares are up 12% over the last six months.

BJ's Restaurants has a market cap of $926 million and an enterprise value of $904 million. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 44 and a forward price-to-earnings of 36. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -19%, and for next year it's pegged at 39%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $30.98 million and its total debt is zero.

A officer just bought 89,072 shares, or about $2.91 million worth of stock, at $32.70 per share. That same officer also just bought 242,713 shares, or about $8 million worth of stock, at $32.99 per share.

From a technical perspective, BJRI is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock is spiking higher here right above its 200-day moving average of $31.08 a share. That move is starting to push shares of BJRI within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

If you're bullish on BJRI, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 50-day at $30.45 and then once breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $33.44 to $35.35 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 641,837 shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then BJRI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $40.99 a share.

Ameresco

A renewable energy player that insiders are active in here is Ameresco (AMRC), which develops, designs, engineers and installs projects that reduce the energy and operations and maintenance costs of facilities. Insiders are buying this stock into major weakness, since shares are down by 25% so far in 2014.

Ameresco has a market cap of $328 million and an enterprise value of $481 million. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 143 and a forward price-to-earnings of 25. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 260%, and for next year it's pegged at 55.6%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $17.17 million and its total debt is $164.76 million.

The CEO just bought 96,675 shares, or about $719,000 worth of stock, at $7.22 per share.

From a technical perspective, AMRC is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month, with shares moving lower from its high of $10.62 to its recent low of $7 a share. During that downtrend, shares of AMRC have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action.

If you're in the bull camp on AMRC, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its recent low at $7 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $7.75 to $8.17 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 156,382 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AMRC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 50-day of $8.88 a share to its 200-day at $9.29 a share.

Opko Health

One biopharmaceutical and diagnostics player that insiders are in love with here is Opko Health (OPK), which is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of novel and proprietary technologies. Insiders are buying this stock into notable strength, since shares are up around 13% so far in 2014.

Opko Health has a market cap of $3.9 billion and an enterprise value of $3.8 million. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a price-to-sales of 40.64 and a price-to-book of 4.47. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -18.8%, and for next year it's pegged at 5.3%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $185.80 million and its total debt is $227.74 million.

The CEO just bought 26,900 shares, or about $247,000 worth of stock, at $9.20 per share. The same CEO also just bought 28,000 shares, or about $264,000 worth of stock, at $9.45 per share.

From a technical perspective, OPK is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock is spiking modestly higher here right above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This spike is starting to push shares of OPK within range of triggering a big breakout trade above some near-term overhead resistance levels.

If you're bullish on OPK, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some key near-term support levels at $9.03 or at $8.81 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels $9.83 to $10.25 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 3.02 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then OPK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $11.65 to $12.95 a share.

Calamos Asset Management

One asset management player that insiders are active in here is Calamos Asset Management (CLMS), which provides investment advisory services to individuals, including high-net-worth individuals, and institutions. Insiders are buying this stock into major strength, since shares are up by 32% over the last six months.

Calamos Asset Management has a market cap of $260 million and an enterprise value of $-192 million. This stock trades at premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 13 and a forward price-to-earnings of 20. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -39%, and for next year it's pegged at 10.7%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $545 million and its total debt is $92.11. This stock currently sports a dividend yield of 4%.

The CEO just bought 21,051 shares, or about $262,000 worth of stock, at $12.49 per share.

From a technical perspective, CLMS is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been trending sideways for the last month and change, with shares moving between $12.42 on the downside and $13.69 on the upside. Shares of CLMS are starting to bounce a bit higher of the lower-end of its range, which also sits right above its 50-day moving average at $12.18 a share.

If you're bullish on CLMS, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 50-day at $12.18 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $13.18 to $13.47 a share and then once it clears its 52-week high at $13.69 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 146,187 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CLMS will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $16 to $18 a share.

Aircastle

One final stock with some large insider buying is Aircastle (AYR), which acquires, leases and sells commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. Insiders are buying this stock into notable strength, since shares are up 10% over the last six months.

Aircastle has a market cap of $1.5 billion and an enterprise value of $4.7 billion. This stock trades at a cheap valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 47 and a forward price-to-earnings of 9.9. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 210%, and for next year it's pegged at 54%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $654.61 million and its total debt is a whopping $3.88 billion. This stock currently sports a dividend yield of 4.2%.

A director just bought 30,000 shares, or about $561,000 worth of stock, at $18.70 per share.
From a technical perspective, AYR is currently trending below both tits 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $18.51 to $18.53 a share. Following that bottom, shares of AYR have started to spike higher and flirt with its 50-day moving average at $19.03 a share. That move is starting to push shares of AYR within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on AYR, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above those double bottom support levels and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $19.63 to $20.12 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 402,666 shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then AYR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $21.35 a share. Any high-volume move above that level will then give AYR a chance to tag $23 to $25 a share.

To see more stocks with notable insider buying, check out the Stocks With Big Insider Buying portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Rocket Stocks Ready for Blastoff



>>5 Toxic Stocks to Sell Now



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Alcoa Beats Earnings, Gains in After-Hours

Shares of Alcoa (AA) have gained after the aluminum company announced better-than-forecast earnings.

Bloomberg

Alcoa said it earned 9 cents a share, besting forecasts for 5 cents, on revenue of $5.5 billion, a slight miss on the Street consensus of $5.55 million. Alcoa expects the demand for aluminum to grow by 7%, it said in a press release.

Klaus Kleinfeld, Alcoa Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, was pleased with the results:

We hit record downstream profitability, nearly tripled results in the midstream, and strengthened our upstream business for the 10th quarter in a row…Our transformation is accelerating – we're powering growth in our value-add businesses and aggressively reshaping our commodity business.

Shares of Alcoa have gained 1.2% to $12.68 in after-hours trading at 4:11 p.m.

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Jury hits Takeda, Eli Lilly with $9B penalty

Shares of Japans's Takeda Pharmaceutical closed down 5.2% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but shares in its partner company Eli Lilly were up about 10 cents at mid day, or up .18%, after a U.S. jury ordered Takeda and Eli Lilly to pay $9 billion in punitive damages over a diabetes medicine linked to cancer.

The U.S District Court in western Louisiana decided a $6 billion penalty for Takeda and $3 billion for its business partner and co-defendant Eli Lilly. It also ordered $1.5 million in compensatory damages in favor of the plaintiff.but Takeda, Japan's biggest drugmaker, said it would "vigorously challenge" the decision.

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration warned in June 2011 that there is a 40% increase in bladder cancer risk in people who used the drug for longer than a year. It required that the cancer risk be added to the medication's warning label. Actos is banned in some European companies.

The legal fight turned on whether Actos, which is used to treat type-two diabetes, caused a patient's bladder cancer and by implication was responsible for other cases of the cancer.

Takeda and Eli Lilly are facing numerous other lawsuits over the drug, which allege failure to warn about side effects and concealment of its health risks.

Kenneth Greisman, a Takeda general counsel, said in a statement that the evidence does not support a link between Actos and bladder cancer.

"Takeda respectfully disagrees with the verdict, and we intend to vigorously challenge this outcome through all available legal means, including possible post-trial motions and an appeal," he said.

Punitive damages are often reduced on appeal.

Actos, which has been sold since 1999, comes with warnings about various serious side effects, including liver problems and higher risk of broken bones.

A former Takeda medical reviewer, Helen Ge, alleged in a 2012 U.S. Distr! ict Court filing in 2012 that the Japanese drugmaker understated the number of bladder cancer cases possibly linked to Actos in its disclosures to the FDA.

There are more than a dozen diabetes medications sold, but, only Actos works the same way as Avandia. Both increase patients' sensitivity to insulin, which is needed to break down carbohydrates. Avandia was linked to a higher risk of heart attacks, but the FDA last year removed safety warnings on the drug.

Contributing: Yuri Kageyama of Associated Press

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Are the Earnings at AptarGroup Hiding Something?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on AptarGroup (NYSE: ATR  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, AptarGroup generated $160.0 million cash while it booked net income of $158.8 million. That means it turned 6.8% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

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So how does the cash flow at AptarGroup look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 5.0% of operating cash flow, AptarGroup's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 4.1% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 51.0% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Looking for alternatives to AptarGroup? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add AptarGroup to My Watchlist.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

Food Disruptions Continue

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According to the latest monthly report issued by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, global inflation has been relatively tame, with consumer prices rising just 1.4 percent in its 34 member countries through February. That's a slight moderation from January's reading of 1.7 percent and essentially mirrors the situation here in the U.S., where inflation ticked up by just 1.1 percent last month.

But while the overall global inflation trend is currently flat to down, if you drill into specific inflationary components you'll see a very different picture.

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The graph below shows the CRB/BLS Foodstuffs Index which tracks the spot price of 10 agricultural commodities; butter, cocoa, corn, hogs, lard, soybean oil, sugar, Minneapolis wheat and Kansas City Wheat. Since touching a 1-year low on December 19, the index has shot up by nearly 21 percent to a new 1-year high.

20140404-SOTF-Food Prices

A separate foodstuffs index tracked by the American Farm Bureau Federation showed a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase in March, largely thanks to double-digit increases in the price of bacon and ground chuck while basics such as bread, milk and eggs also posted gains in the high single-digits.

According to the Department of Agriculture, food prices here in the U.S. are expected to increase by between 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent this year.  If they do break the 3 percent mark, it will likely be the largest increase since 2011 and more than double last year's 1.4 percent rise.

The problem of rising food prices isn't an isolated U.S. problem. The United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization! 's global food price index showed a big 2.3 percent year-over-year swing in March, hitting the highest level in nearly a year. If you drill down, the price of grains alone soared 5.2 percent to their highest cost since August. Sugar posted the largest increase of 7.9 percent with dairy prices being the only one to show a decrease in the month.

Here in the U.S. the soaring food prices are largely thanks to bad weather over the past several years. Droughts across much of the Western US and Texas have pushed grain prices higher, boosting feed costs and forcing ranchers to pare back their herds. That, in turn, has increased the cost of meat and dairy products across the country. The prices of other vegetables have also shot up thanks to dry weather across much of our country's agricultural heartland over the past few years.

It is not just our own weather impacting American food prices, though. Drought in Brazil also spurred huge increases in the cost of coffee, sugar and oranges just to name a few affected commodities.

Even the weather isn't solely to blame, with politics playing a role as well.

Thailand has been racked by strikes and protests as the legitimacy of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government has been questioned by many Thais. Protestors have blocked traffic, spooked tourists and managed to sufficiently disrupt recent elections that they will have to be held again. Strikes have also forced the country's agricultural sector to a virtual halt, prompting a spike in sugarcane prices and raising concerns over the region's rice supply.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine's Crimea has also prompted a spike in corn and wheat prices. Ukraine is the fifth-largest wheat exporter and the third-largest corn exporter in the world, sending about 10 million tons of wheat and 18.5 million tons of corn abroad. That's roughly 16 percent of the global grain supply.

Given that most of Ukraine's major ports are located in Crimea, there have been concerns that e! xports co! uld be disrupted, especially if the crisis escalates. While prices have eased a bit after contributing to the major spike in European prices last month, they remain elevated and could spike again if Russia makes another aggressive move in the region.

In this era of globalization the world's food supplies are so interlinked that disruptions anywhere, regardless of whether they're related to weather or politics, have significant impacts on the rest of the world. The same is true for any component of the commodities complex, whether it is metals, energy or agriculture. So don't let seemingly benign headline numbers lull you into a sense of security.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Small Cap Energous Corp (WATT): The Ultimate Wireless Charging Stock? QCOM & ENR

Small cap wireless charging stock Energous Corp (NASDAQ: WATT) had a spectacular IPO debut last Friday plus it rose another 39.41% today, meaning its worth taking a closer look at the stock along with the performance of a few other players in the wireless charger or charging niche like Qualcomm, Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Energizer Holdings, Inc (NYSE: ENR). After all, wireless charging would eliminate the clutter of wires and charging devices surrounding everyone's desk, workspace or home. Moreover, a 2011 article in the Independent.co.uk quoted an analyst at IHS as saying the wireless charging market would rise from $123.9 million in 2010 to reach $885.8 million in 2011 and then grow exponentially in 2012 when revenue was expected to increase by 276%. By 2015, market growth was expected to ease to 48% as revenue from wireless charging devices hits the $23.7 billion level.     

What Is Energous Corp?

Small cap Energous Corporation is developing WattUp™ - a wire-free charging technology that will transform the way people charge and power their electronic devices at home, in the office, in the car and just about anywhere. Specifically, WattUp is a novel, patent- and trademark-pending solution that delivers intelligent, scalable power via the same radio bands as a Wi-Fi router. WattUp differs from current wire-free charging systems in that it allows users to roam and use their devices while charging resulting in a true wire-free experience that saves users from having to remember to plug in their devices or place them on a mat. Energous will initially license WattUp to the mobile accessory market, with an eye toward expanding to other markets over time.

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As for potential peers or competitors, large cap digital communications stock Qualcomm has developed a pair of wireless charging solutions - one for portable electronics and another for EVs; mid cap Energizer Holdings is also apparently a player in the sector (e.g. The Energizer Inductive Charger etc); plus (according to the Independent article) companies such as Powermat, PureEnergy and IDAPT also offer universal wireless chargers for all types of devices that are supposedly still less efficient than the jumble of cables and cords that most people rely on to keep their gadgets fully powered.

What You Need to Know or Be Warned About Energous Corp

Energous Corp priced its IPO at $6 a share to sell 4 million shares plus included a 45-day option for underwriters to buy up to an additional 600,000 shares for total potential gross proceeds of $27.6 million. Shares surged 76.33% to close at $10.58 on Friday.

However, Energous Corp is an unusual company as the San Jose Mercury noted that the company has gone public less than two years after being formed rather than go the usual route of seeking venture capital or private equity funding while Michael Leabman, the Chief Technology Officer, Director and Founder, has the following bio: 

From September 2010 to September 2013, Mr. Leabman served as President of TruePath Wireless, a service provider and equipment provider in the broadband communications industry. Mr. Leabman has served on the board of directors of TruePath Holdings since 2010 and continues to serve on the board today. From 2008 to 2010, Mr. Leabman served as Chief Technology Officer for DataRunway Inc., a wireless communication company providing broadband internet to airlines. Mr. Leabman received both his Bachelor of Science degree and Master of Engineering degree in electrical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Mr. Leabman's extensive knowledge the Company, its technology and the consumer and commercial electronics industry position him well for service on our board of directors.

It should be mentioned that Energous Corp has not generated revenues since its inception (click here to see the latest prospectus) and has incurred net losses of $5,521,081 for the year ended December 31, 2013, $21,287 for the period October 30, 2012 (inception) through December 31, 2012, and $5,542,368 for the period October 30, 2012 (inception) through December 31, 2013. Last year, Energous Corp met its liquidity requirements principally through the private placement of convertible notes while at the end of the year, the company's cash on hand was $1,953,780 (Note: Debt holders are receiving roughly 1.8 million shares in the company in exchange for their notes plus 210,000 shares were sold to strategic partner Hanbit Electronics of Korea for $1 million earlier this month in a private placement).  

Given the lack of revenue, roughly half the IPO funds raised will be used for research and development of the charging system with the rest rest targeted for sales and marketing, computer purchases and other administrative needs. The company hopes to have its first consumer products ready to show off at the 2015 CES, with sales coming in later in the year. Moreover and as of March 21, 2014, Energous Corp had 37 pending US patents and provisional patent applications and the company has identified more than 80 specific inventions it believes to be novel and patentable.

The prospectus also noted:

Our remote charging technology involves the transmission of power using RF energy waves, which are subject to regulation by the Federal Communications Commission ("FCC"), and may be subject to regulation by other federal, state and local agencies. To our knowledge, the transmission of power in this manner by a consumer product at the ranges we are proposing is novel. We believe our technology is safe, and we intend to demonstrate that to the FCC as soon as practicable.

Share Performance: Energous Corp vs. QCOM & ENR

On Monday, small cap Energous Corp rose 39.41% to $14.75 (WATT has a 52 week trading range of $7.76 to $16.00 a share) for a market cap of $93.33 million plus here is a look at the long term performance of Qualcomm and Energizer Holdings:

As you can see from the above chart, both are up around 100% since the end of the financial crisis.

Finally, here are the latest technical charts for Qualcomm and Energizer Holdings:

The Bottom Line. Investors who aren't speculators may want to be cautious about investing in a recent IPO like Energous Corp that's also in the wireless charging business. After all, Energous Corp has only been around for two years - hardly enough time for management and its technology to prove themselves.